The 1.5-degree target is expected to be exceeded

September 4, 2026

Source: E & M powernews

A report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) predicts that the 1.5-degree threshold will be exceeded. The German government, however, is focusing on emissions reduction, natural sinks, and CO2 removal.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warns that the 1.5-degree threshold is likely to be exceeded. In the report “Limiting Overshoot – Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return,” published on September 2, the authors conclude that a return below the threshold remains possible in principle. However, for this to happen, the overshoot must be as small and as short-lived as possible.

According to UNEP, the world is currently on a path that would lead to a warming of about 2.6 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels. There are many indications that the 1.5-degree limit will be permanently exceeded in the coming years. Even with very rapid and comprehensive climate action, the report states that the temperature rise could likely only be limited to about 1.8 degrees.

UNEP therefore recommends a pathway involving a temporary exceedance, a peak in temperature, and a subsequent decline. The risks and impacts of climate change increase with every additional fraction of a degree and with every additional year above 1.5 degrees. Furthermore, some consequences are irreversible.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen stated at the report’s presentation in Nairobi that climate action efforts must now be intensified and must not be abandoned. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called “extreme events such as heat waves, wildfires, and floods warning signs of what is to come.”

German Government Responds with a Three-Pronged Approach

Federal Environment Minister Carsten Schneider (SPD) continues to view emissions reduction as the most important approach. “Every tenth of a degree less global warming protects people, nature, and the economy,” Schneider explained. The faster emissions fall, the less damage there will be, and the less CO2 will need to be removed from the atmosphere later on.

The federal government is pursuing a three-pronged approach consisting of emissions reduction, the protection of natural carbon sinks, and the development of technical methods for CO2 removal. The basis for this is the Federal Climate Protection Act. In it, Germany has committed to achieving greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045 and net-negative emissions after 2050.

With the 2026 Climate Action Program adopted in March, the federal government says it has approved 67 additional measures for the energy sector, industry, buildings, transportation, and agriculture. These measures are expected to reduce CO2 emissions by more than 25 million metric tons by 2030.

Plans include, among other things, expanding wind energy, electrifying industry and transportation, creating more climate-friendly heating networks, and implementing measures to promote a circular economy. Eight billion euros are to be made available for these additional measures from 2027 to 2030.

Natural Carbon Sinks Under Pressure

As a second pillar, the federal government aims to strengthen natural carbon sinks. Forests, peatlands, soils, floodplains, bodies of water, and oceans can absorb and store CO₂ over the long term. At the same time, these ecosystems are themselves coming under pressure from climate change and human use.

The federal government assumes that some unavoidable residual emissions will persist in the long term. It expects these to occur particularly in agriculture and in certain industrial processes. To achieve net-negative emissions after 2050, additional CO₂ must therefore be removed from the atmosphere and stored permanently.

Greenpeace takes a more critical view of the emphasis placed on technical CO2 removal. Climate expert Jannes Stoppel explained that natural CO2 sinks such as forests and peatlands must be strengthened instead of relying on technical solutions. Forests and soils are important ways to counteract the CO2 surplus. At the same time, emissions must decline rapidly across all sectors.

Adaptation Is Becoming More Important

In addition to limiting the rise in temperature, UNEP also calls for greater adaptation to the consequences that are already foreseeable. These include more frequent and intense extreme weather events, damage to ecosystems, and risks to health, food security, water supply, infrastructure, and the economy. Small island states and low-lying coastal cities are particularly at risk.

Co-author Shobha Maharaj of the University of the South Pacific emphasized, “Adaptation must not take a back seat to climate protection.” Both areas must be advanced simultaneously, especially in particularly vulnerable regions.

According to its own statements, the German government also intends to remain committed to the goals of the Paris Agreement on the international stage. Exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold would not alter the fundamental direction of climate policy.

Author: Susanne Harmsen