DUH Warns of the Climate Impacts of New Natural Gas Power Plants

September 7, 2026

Source: E & M powernews

A FÖS study commissioned by Deutsche Umwelthilfe (DUH) criticizes the potential emissions from new gas-fired power plants. By 2045, these emissions could reach up to 125 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents.

The German Environmental Aid (DUH) warns of the potential climate impacts of the new gas-fired power plants provided for in the Electricity Supply Security and Capacity Act (StromVKG). According to a study by the Forum for Ecological-Social Market Economy (FÖS) commissioned by the DUH, these plants could generate a total of up to 125 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents by 2045. The resulting climate damage could amount to as much as 127 billion euros. The new gas-fired power plants are intended to secure Germany’s electricity supply, even during periods when renewable energy producers cannot supply enough power.

They are intended to make the phase-out of coal-fired power generation by 2038 possible. According to data from the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE), the specific CO2 emissions from lignite-fired power plants range from 1 to 1.2 metric tons of CO2 per MWh of electricity generated. Gas-fired power plants emit significantly less CO2 at the plant itself—about 0.35 to 0.4 metric tons of CO2 per MWh. However, the DUH and the FÖS point out that this comparison does not account for methane emissions from the natural gas supply chain.

Climate-Damaging Natural Gas Production

The study examines the first tenders under the StromVKG, which are intended to secure 9,000 MW of power plant capacity. The first bidding deadline is September 8, 2026. According to FÖS calculations, the power plants could emit up to 83 million metric tons of CO2 during operation by 2045. Added to this are up to 42 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents from methane emissions along the natural gas supply chain. This includes the extraction, processing, and transportation of the gas. The climate impacts of other gases are converted to CO2 equivalents; methane contributes more to global warming than CO2 but is broken down more quickly.

The FÖS distinguishes between two scenarios. Based on scenarios from the Federal Network Agency, CO2 emissions—including upstream emissions—could amount to up to 66 million metric tons. According to the study, if the energy transition is delayed and gas-fired power plants are used more extensively as a result, this figure would rise to up to 83 million metric tons. The FÖS estimates the additional methane emissions, depending on the origin and delivery conditions of the natural gas, at up to 33 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents, or up to 42 million metric tons in the scenario of a delayed energy transition.

In calculating the climate impact, the FÖS takes into account methane’s 20-year global warming potential. According to the study, total emissions range from 72 to 125 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents. The FÖS estimates the climate damage not covered by CO2 pricing at 19 to 127 billion euros.

New Power Plants Too Expensive

In addition to the climate impacts, the study also criticizes government subsidies for the power plants. The maximum bid is set at 244,000 euros per MW. This could result in annual subsidies of up to 2.2 billion euros. Over a 15-year subsidy period, this could amount to up to approximately 33 billion euros. The subsidies are to be financed through a levy on electricity consumption.

The DUH is therefore calling for a change to the tender criteria. In the organization’s view, these criteria should be designed to be technology-neutral so that battery storage systems, flexible biogas plants, and other climate-friendly capacities can also participate in the tenders. The law does not provide for this until 2027.

Sascha Müller-Kraenner, Federal Executive Director of the DUH, is also calling for greater consideration of methane emissions. “So far, these have not been adequately accounted for in either the carbon footprint of gas-fired power plants or in the European Emissions Trading System,” he warned. According to Florian Zerzawy, head of energy policy at FÖS and lead author of the study, FÖS also supports this position.

Furthermore, the law does not mandate an early transition to green hydrogen for new power plants. Essentially, it outlines a plan for a later transition. Subsidies for retrofitting are expected to be available for approximately 4,000 MW of power plant capacity starting in 2040 or 2043. According to the FÖS, it remains unclear what requirements the transition plans must meet and how the subsidies will be financed.

The DUH is therefore calling for binding roadmaps for an earlier transition to green hydrogen. At the same time, the federal government should support stricter regulation of methane emissions at the European level. Gas imports should therefore only be permitted if their methane intensity is below 0.2 percent. A methane tax could create additional incentives to reduce leaks along the supply chain, according to the DUH.

Author: Susanne Harmsen