Study sees rapid development in hydrogen

23.07.2024

The demand for green hydrogen will increase rapidly in central Germany by 2040. A 1,100-kilometre-long distribution network will connect producers and consumers.

The study "Hydrogen Network Central Germany 2.0", which has now been presented in Leipzig, looks at the future of the energy source in Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia. Based on specific demand surveys and area potential analyses, it forecasts hydrogen demand of up to 39 billion kWh in the industrial, commercial, trade and services, household, energy and mobility sectors by 2030. A figure of up to 88 billion kWh is expected by 2040.

More than a third of the demand will be accounted for by the industrial and energy sectors respectively. According to the authors, the figures already go beyond the scope of demand for Central Germany determined as part of the German government's "National Hydrogen Strategy".

The study also confirms that the region has extensive potential for the local production of green hydrogen. An electrolysis capacity of 2,900 to 3,700 MW is expected by 2030. Ten years later, this figure should be between 7,100 and 11,000 MW.

The production of these quantities will be made possible by the further expansion of renewable energies in Central Germany. In a moderate scenario in the study, the installed capacity of wind energy in the study area will increase by a factor of 6 to around 34,000 MW by 2040, while ground-mounted photovoltaics will increase by a factor of 8 to 23,000 MW. This means that one third of the regional hydrogen demand in 2040 could be covered by domestic production in Central Germany.

To connect consumers and producers of green hydrogen via the 79 connection points reported by the study partners, 42 pipeline sections with a total length of 1,100 km are required, according to the study authors. In close coordination with the 13 network operators involved, they propose a phased implementation of the network for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2045. Around 51 percent of the route (565 km) should be realized by converting existing natural gas pipelines.

This and the parallel laying of new sections in existing route corridors could significantly reduce the associated costs and planning periods. The authors of the study currently estimate the costs for the Central German hydrogen network at around 1 billion euros. This represents a saving of 41 percent or 720 million euros compared to a completely new network.

"Central Germany is H2-ready"

"With this study, we have identified sources and sinks for green hydrogen in the region in a previously unattained quality and scope and presented a very concrete and realistically dimensioned target network plan for the Central German hydrogen distribution network. Central Germany is H2-ready," explains Jörn-Heinrich Tobaben, Managing Director of the European Metropolitan Region of Central Germany.

"The electrolysis sites along the first expansion stage of the National Hydrogen Core Network in the region, which will start in 2027, are proof of this: For further investment decisions on the producer and demand side of green hydrogen on an industrial scale, we need a grid-based, large-scale infrastructure in the near future," says Joachim Wicke, Chairman of the Board at the Hypos hydrogen network. Central Germany is already well positioned in terms of all other critical success factors such as the availability of green electricity, industrial hydrogen demand and innovative business models for green hydrogen.

The study, initiated jointly by the European Metropolitan Region of Central Germany, Hypos, DBI Gas- und Umwelttechnik and Infracon, was carried out on behalf of 54 regional partners from industry and public administration, including 13 network operators, 29 consumers/producers and twelve supporters.

Author: Günter Drewnitzky
Source: Energy & Management Powernews