Significant drop in sales of heat pumps
Heat Pump Market Hopes for Recovery: Funding and Political Stability as Key Drivers
22.01.2025
Source: E & M powernews
After a slump in demand last year, the heat pump industry is hoping that sales will pick up again. The number of applications for subsidies at least points to increased interest.
After record sales in 2023, sales figures for heat pumps in Germany slumped by almost half last year. However, the German Heat Pump Association (BWP) expects that the market could recover this year - provided the framework conditions remain in place. "The interest and demand is there," said BWP Managing Director Martin Sabel at a press conference on January 21. However, it is crucial that the incoming German government supports this trend with reliable and fair market conditions and targeted impetus for investments in renewable heating systems.
The BWP figures show that after two years of relatively high sales figures, heat pump sales slumped by 46% last year. While the industry was still able to sell almost 360,000 heating heat pumps in 2023, 193,000 units were sold last year, with air-to-water heat pumps accounting for the lion's share. According to BWP, the main reasons for this are uncertainties surrounding municipal heating planning and the lack of awareness of heating subsidies.
2025: Sales of around 260,000 heat pumps forecast
The BWP expects sales to pick up again this year, as demand for subsidies in particular has increased significantly with more than 151,000 approvals. Sabel emphasized that the industry is prepared for a further ramp-up and is forecasting sales of around 260,000 heat pumps by 2025, which corresponds to an increase of 33 percent. However, this upturn will only become a reality if politicians make a clear commitment to climate targets and also consolidate the heat pump subsidy, which has now been launched.
Source: German Heat Pump Association
The entire industry is therefore looking forward to the new legislative period with excitement. After this year, many manufacturers will find themselves in a difficult situation, said Sabel. Companies have responded correctly to the sharp rise in demand for heat pumps in 2022 and 2023 and invested more than 7 billion euros in production lines, skilled workers and training capacities across Europe. Klaus Ackermann, Deputy Chairman of the BWP and Managing Director of Nibe Systemtechnik from Celle, added: "Our industrial and trade companies have created jobs in Germany and Europe. We have thus prepared ourselves for tough global competition and are well prepared for a market that will soon pick up again."
With the Building Energy Act, the Heat Planning Act and the Federal Subsidy for Efficient Buildings (BEG) and the Federal Subsidy for Efficient Heating Networks (BEW), the foundations have been laid for a climate-neutral building stock, said Ackermann. "These structures should be maintained until the European emissions trading scheme for heating and transport has been introduced as planned in 2027. The use of the resulting revenue should be clarified at an early stage, made socially fair and the German electricity price should be further relieved of state-regulated levies."
Sales figures for heat pumps in Germany in 2024 by energy source
| Sales 2024 | Comparison with 2023 | Share of sources | |
| Total number of heating heat pumps | 193.000 | -46 Prouent | |
| Ground source | 15.000 | -42 percent | 8 percent |
| -Brine | 13.000 | -45 percent | |
| -Groundwater and other | 2.000 | -25 percent | |
| Air | 178.000 | -46 percent | 92 percent |
| -monoblock | 147.000 | -41 percent | |
| -split | 31.000 | -61 percent | |
| Total number of hot water heat pumps | 41.500 | -50 percent |
Source: BWP (as of January 21, 2025)
In summary, Sabel called on politicians to reduce electricity prices, continue the CO2 price and ensure stability in funding programs and regulatory requirements in order to establish heat pump technology. "The discussion about withdrawing the regulations is therefore causing irritation among industry, trade and building owners," said Sabel. It is causing unnecessary and damaging restraint on the heating market.
According to the BWP Managing Director, this must continue to apply: From 2026 and 2028, heating systems using fossil fuels will only be installed if there is a resilient plan behind them for their complete conversion to renewable alternatives by 2045. In particular, the expectation that gas grids could be converted to hydrogen on a large scale harbors major risks in terms of availability and costs.
In addition to reliable subsidies, it is also necessary to expand and improve credit offers and create the economic framework conditions for successful contracting models.
Author: Heidi Roider
