Renewables Reduce Europe's Geopolitical Risks

October 21, 2026

Source: E & M powernews

The think tank Strategic Perspectives views renewable energy as the most important lever for Europe’s energy security. It calls for greater electrification and fewer oil and gas imports.

According to an analysis by the pan-European think tank Strategic Perspectives, Europe’s dependence on imported oil and gas is the greatest vulnerability in its energy supply. Renewable energy, by contrast, is the least vulnerable to supply disruptions during geopolitical crises. This is the conclusion reached by the report “The Energy Security Switch,” which examines the European Union’s (EU) energy system based on six geopolitical crisis scenarios.

The analysis was published on October 20 against the backdrop of the planned revision of the EU’s energy security framework and negotiations on the post-2030 energy regulatory framework. Although the EU has diversified its energy supply since the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, Strategic Perspectives continues to identify structural risks. These include disrupted fuel supplies, restrictions on the supply of critical raw materials, hybrid attacks, and conventional wars.

Oil and Gas Particularly Vulnerable

According to the report, the extent to which energy sources would be affected depends on the specific crisis scenario. In the most severe case examined—a conventional war—the EU’s oil supply is five times more vulnerable to disruptions than its renewable energy supply. For pipeline gas, the vulnerability is about four times higher. Reducing fossil fuel consumption could therefore lower both the risk of supply shortages and the impact of volatile energy prices.

Nuclear energy is also subject to risks. However, according to Strategic Perspectives, fuel reserves and the long intervals between refueling limit the short-term consequences of disrupted supplies.
Wind, solar, and hydropower perform best in all six scenarios. However, risks exist in the supply chains for critical raw materials.

Supply disruptions could hinder the manufacturing, maintenance, and expansion of power plants. Already installed plants, on the other hand, could continue to generate electricity. The think tank therefore recommends diversifying international partnerships and expanding European capacities for manufacturing, processing, and recycling. This would help limit supply risks while simultaneously strengthening industrial value creation in Europe.

Electrification Aims to Reduce Imports

According to the report, a key starting point is the electrification of transportation, heating, and other application areas. This could reduce Europe’s oil and gas imports by about two-thirds. Strategic Perspectives calls for a binding, EU-wide electrification target of 46 percent by 2040. In addition, the share of fossil-free electricity should reach at least 90 percent by 2035.

Further recommendations concern the resilience of the energy infrastructure. The think tank advocates eliminating critical supply bottlenecks, establishing a joint European reserve of repair equipment, and strengthening energy autonomy for essential utility services.

Strategic Priorities for Energy Policy

Neil Makaroff, director of Strategic Perspectives, views future energy security primarily as a matter of political decision-making. “No single energy source can guarantee resilience on its own,” he said. Oil and gas, on the other hand, increase vulnerability to geopolitical shocks. The EU must therefore gradually replace the riskiest energy sources and invest more heavily in power grids, storage, renewable energy, and electrification.

Energy analyst Marin Gillot points to the immediate consequences of international conflicts for European consumers and businesses. Dependence on imported fossil fuels means that crises abroad are passed on to energy costs in Europe. Renewable energy could limit the impact of fuel shortages, restrictions on raw material exports, and wars.

Managing Director Linda Kalcher also calls for accelerated electrification based on fossil-free energy. As long as Europe remains dependent on oil and gas imports, it will remain vulnerable to geopolitical crises and price shocks. Kalcher sees the upcoming Energy Council meeting as a potential opportunity to realign European energy policy.

The report “The Energy Security Switch” by Strategic Perspectives is available online.

Author: Susanne Harmsen