Germany's climate path does not lead all the way to the goal

June 16, 2026

Source: E & M powernews

The Öko-Institut’s greenhouse gas projections show that while Germany’s emissions will continue to decline under the measures adopted so far, key climate targets will not be met.

Germany is unlikely to achieve its climate targets with the measures adopted and implemented to date. This is shown in the 2026 Projection Report, which the Öko-Institut prepared in collaboration with several research institutions on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency.

According to the report, greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by 62.6 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. However, this falls just short of the 65 percent target set in the Federal Climate Action Act (KSG). With the measures adopted so far, Germany will actually fall well short of the net greenhouse gas neutrality target set for 2045: The report forecasts a reduction of only 83 percent for that target year.

Specifically: According to the researchers, total emissions excluding land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) will decline from 649.8 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents in 2024 to 468.4 million metric tons in 2030. For 2045, emissions are still projected to be 212.5 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalents.

A Model Student in the Energy Sector

The study identifies the expansion of renewable energy, efficiency improvements, and energy savings as the key drivers of emissions reduction. The authors estimate that renewable energy will account for approximately 79 percent of gross electricity consumption in 2030. At the same time, emissions from the energy sector will drop to 94.2 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalents by 2030—a reduction of more than half compared to 2024. However, the 2030 target of an 80 percent share of renewables in the electricity mix will also be narrowly missed here.
The authors identify the largest shortfalls in the transportation and building sectors. In the transportation sector, the shortfall relative to the target by 2030 amounts to approximately 187 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents. Furthermore, only seven million battery-electric passenger cars are projected for 2030. This is significantly below the political target of 15 million vehicles.

In the building sector, a gap of 110 million metric tons of CO2 equivalents remains by 2030 compared to the climate protection pathway. The study assesses the (potential) impacts of the Building Modernization Act and federal funding for energy-efficient buildings positively.

According to the projections, industry will become Germany’s largest emitter as early as around 2028 and will remain the sector with the highest emissions in the long term. Nevertheless, industrial emissions will decline by about 60 percent by 2030. According to the study’s authors, the instrument that contributes most to emissions reduction is the EU Emissions Trading System.

The report takes a particularly critical view of developments in the LULUCF sector. Although agriculture is projected to fall short of annual emission targets by 2030, Lower amounts of applied nitrogen and improvements in nitrogen efficiency have led to declining emissions. In the long term, however, emissions from agriculture will decline significantly more slowly than in other sectors. The sector will thus become the second-largest source of emissions.

The full study,“Greenhouse Gas Projections 2026 for Germany,”which was conducted by the Ökoinstitut in collaboration with Fraunhofer ISI, IREES, Prognos, M-Five, FfE, and the Thünen Institute, is available online.

Author: Katia Meyer-Tien