KOSiNeK: Energy system analysis as a guide for the energy transition?

The energy supply is changing rapidly in almost all European countries. Renewable energies are increasingly displacing conventional power plants. In Germany, wind and solar power in particular are set to replace electricity that was previously generated primarily in nuclear and coal-fired power plants. Storage facilities and gas-fired power plants are to balance out the fluctuating green power production due to solar radiation and wind conditions.

The Energiewende is an extremely demanding task that requires interdisciplinary collaboration between different disciplines. The greatest challenge lies in resolving the energy industry's target triangle of security of supply, economic efficiency and environmental compatibility as conflict-free as possible. Thus, the energy transition is associated with great opportunities, but also with considerable risks. Among other things, the path to our energy future is closely linked to investment decisions by industry.

How will the power supply system develop?

There are a wide variety of opinions on this. Overall views of the power system make it possible to map different scenarios and their likely advantages and disadvantages, as well as their chances of implementation. The buzzword "system analysis" stands for planning aids with which politics and the energy industry want to look into the future. The Energy Technology Cluster took up this topic at an early stage. Since 2012, it has been working with renowned partners to develop models for describing the interactions of different technologies for the generation, distribution and storage of electric power under the framework conditions of the energy transition.

In phases 1 and 2 of the energy system analysis, computational models for Bavaria and the Federal Republic were created between 2012 and 2016. In the 3rd phase, scientists at Friedrich-Alexander University (FAU) Erlangen-Nuremberg have been working in an interdisciplinary manner since 2016 on an energy system analysis for Germany and its neighboring countries. The acronym KOSiNeK stands for "Combined Optimization, Simulation and Grid Analysis of Germany's Electrical Energy System in a European Context". Three FAU chairs with different areas of responsibility are involved:

Network Analysis: Chair of Electrical Energy Systems
Optimization: Chair of Business Mathematics
Simulation: Chair of Computer Science 7 for Computer Networks and Communication Systems

The Cluster Energy Technology is responsible for public relations work as part of the project and coordinates the advisory board with representatives from industrial companies, power grid operators, utilities and the Bavarian Ministry of Economic Affairs. The KOSiNeK project is funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy until 2019.

Final Report Energy System Analysis Phase 3

The project "Combined Optimization, Simulation and Network Analysis of the Electric Power System in the European Context" (KOSiNeK) was completed in 2020. The main results can be found in the project news Energy System Analysis Final Report Phase 3 (6-page PDF, 3 MB)

Results reports of the participating FAU chairs on the project "Energy System Analysis Phase 3 KOSiNeK"

Energy System Analysis Project Phase 1, 2012-2014: Bavaria

Especially in Bavaria with its high share of nuclear energy , new solutions for the energy transition are being sought. In this context, economic efficiency must also be ensured. Overall energy system assessments estimate various options for action, their probable advantages and disadvantages, and chances of implementation. A new model is being developed to describe the interaction of technologies for the generation, distribution and storage of electricity under the boundary conditions of the energy transition.

Various conditions and assumptions form the basis of the Bavarian energy system model. Bavarian companies are actively involved with technical contributions, provide data material and accompany the model contents. During the two-year term of project phase 1, executable individual models were developed and scenario calculations with individual models as well as coupled considerations were carried out. To this end, the partners provided a considerable amount of data - for example, on the costs of renewable energy sources and conventional power plants, as well as data series on solar radiation and wind speed.

Energy System Analysis Project Phase 2, 2014-2016: Germany

The energy system analysis of the follow-up project used data, assumptions, interactions in Germany as a whole. The project, funded by the Bavarian State Ministry of Economic Affairs, Energy and Technology, was to provide runnable individual models by early 2015 that allowed detailed mapping of electricity imports and exports. To this end, the transmission grid areas in Germany and in important electricity transit countries such as Austria were mapped, among other things, both in terms of the power plant park and the extra-high voltage transmission grid and its subordinate grid level. A catalog of scenarios was to be drawn up and prioritized from the current discussion on the energy turnaround.

The focus of the second phase of the project, which was funded by the Bavarian Ministry of Economic Affairs, was the simulation of the entire German energy supply system. Three chairs of the Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU) developed three models in the areas of optimization, simulation and electrical grid for this purpose. Using a coupled energy system model, two development scenarios were investigated that could compensate for the power deficit caused by the loss of nuclear energy in Bavaria. One is grid expansion to create additional transmission capacity in conjunction with decentralized storage, and the other is the expansion of gas-fired power plants to supplement renewables.