Energy transition monitor: speed is not enough

02.06.2026

Source: E & M powernews

The expansion of renewable energies and electrification gained momentum in 2025, according to the BDEW in its "Progress Monitor" on the energy transition.

Even though the official presentation as part of a webinar is still pending, the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) has now published this year's progress monitor for the energy transition in Germany. The key finding: the energy transition in Germany made further progress in 2025.

In particular, the expansion of renewable energies and the electrification of heating and transport have developed positively. At the same time, the Energy Transition Progress Monitor 2026 by BDEW and the consulting firm EY shows that the speed in key areas is still not sufficient to achieve the climate and energy policy targets by 2030.

According to the authors of the study, the share of renewable energies in gross electricity consumption rose to around 56% despite a windless first quarter and was therefore still slightly above the planned target path. Although the expansion of wind energy gained momentum, it fell short of the required figures. A net 4.6 gigawatts were added on land and only 0.5 gigawatts at sea. Photovoltaics was once again the growth driver. With an expansion of almost 18 gigawatts, a new record was reached in 2025.

The report also records progress in electrification. More battery electric vehicles were newly registered in 2025 than ever before. The share of all-electric cars in new registrations rose to around 19 percent. In addition, heat pumps became the best-selling type of heating system for the first time. The number of installations increased to around 2.2 million.

Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties, the authors no longer view the energy transition exclusively as a climate protection project. Instead, it should increasingly be seen as a prerequisite for security of supply, economic resilience and reduced dependence on energy imports. However, the transformation is associated with high investments and thus with a transition from a predominantly operating cost-oriented to an investment-driven energy system.

Greenhouse gas emissions barely reduced

However, the Progress Monitor also draws attention to considerable deficits. For example, greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 only fell by 0.1 percent compared to the previous year. According to the study, annual emission reductions of more than seven percent would be required from 2026 in order to achieve the climate protection targets for 2030.

The study also sees considerable pent-up demand in the hydrogen sector. Although hydrogen production has recently increased again, it is still almost entirely based on fossil fuels. The target of ten gigawatts of electrolysis capacity by 2030 appears to be increasingly difficult to achieve. Although projects with a capacity of up to 13 gigawatts have been announced, only around 1.3 gigawatts have been financially secured or are already under construction or operation.

The energy grids have a key role to play. The investment plans of transmission system operators have risen to 22.2 billion euros in 2025, while those of distribution system operators have risen to 11 billion euros. At the same time, the authors of the study expect a significant increase in new grid users by 2030 due to photovoltaic systems, heat pumps and charging infrastructure. Accelerated approvals, digitalization, a faster smart meter rollout and competitive capital conditions are therefore necessary for the success of the energy transition.

There are still deficits in the heating sector. The share of renewable energies and waste heat in heating and cooling demand was around 20.7% in 2025, well below the target of 32% climate-neutral heating by 2030. The authors are positive about the progress made in municipal heating planning. More than half of the cities with over 100,000 inhabitants have already completed this.

The report describes the transport sector as the biggest problem child of the energy transition. In 2025, emissions amounted to 146 million tons of CO₂ equivalents, well above the target value of 73 million tons for 2030.

The charging infrastructure developed dynamically: public charging capacity reached around ten gigawatts, significantly exceeding the European expansion targets. However, further incentives for electromobility, long-term investment security and additional space for charging infrastructure are required for a successful transport transition.

The Progress Monitor 2026 is available for download on the BDEW website.

Author: Fritz Wilhelm