Trend Radar Energy

The Specialization Field Energy of Bayern Innovativ GmbH has started in 2021 with the creation of the Trend Radar Energy. The Trendradar Energy offers a comprehensive overview of current trends that will shape the energy industry in the coming years.

1. Objectives

The objective is a strategic preparation of trend-based influences on the energy industry, as well as a perspective query to analyze discrepancies and consistencies of different consulting groups. Based on this, discussion points for future topics and focal points in the energy industry should be identified and individual derivations can be made, with the aim of networking and supporting companies in Bavaria even better. The assessments of the trends are based on a qualitative expert survey and are not a representative survey of the opinion of the industry.

2. Methodology

The Trend Radar Energy was realized in four methodological steps:

1. First, internal sources were processed and supplemented by desk research. Then, the research results were structured and condensed into 61 trends according to STEEP (socio-cultural, technological, economic, ecological and political trends).
   
   
2. In the second step, the 61 trends were reflected and prioritized with experts in interviews (time period: 10/25/2021 - 11/03/2021).
   
   
3. In the third phase, the 61 trends were evaluated based on three criteria in anonymous online surveys (period: 17.11.2021 - 15.12.2021) by players in the Bavarian energy industry. The participants of the survey could assign themselves to the survey groups economy, science and intermediaries in a perspective query. The three evaluation criteria were influence ("How strong do you estimate the influence on the energy industry by this trend?"), priority ("What priority does this trend have for your company/institution?") and innovation driver ("When do you estimate the trend will be a strong innovation driver in the energy industry?"). The survey results are based on calculations of mean values, with the choices equally weighted in the analysis.
   
   
4. In the fourth step, the survey results were analyzed using the Digital Innovation Platform (DIP) of the Bayern Innovativ GmbH visualized with a trend radar. A total of 33 participants completed the survey in part or in full. Of these, 10 participants assigned themselves to business (e.g., large companies, SMEs, start-ups ...), 9 participants to science (e.g., universities, non-university research institutions...) and 14 participants to intermediaries (e.g., downstream institutions, clusters, networks, associations...) in the perspective survey. The overall perspective is composed of all 33 assessments of the participants.
   
   

4. Selected Core Results

Overall Perspective:

• The trends "System integration of renewable energies", "Acceleration of the energy transition" and "Social acceptance of the energy transition" were assessed with very high influence.
• "Emissions reduction and climate neutrality" was assessed with very high priority, whereas "Liquefied Natural Gas", "Sharing Economy" and "Biologization of industry or mobility " were assessed with low priority.
• The trends "Circular Economy" , "Biologization of industry resp. of mobility," and "Resilient building and urban design" were rated as drivers of innovation in the next six to ten years, whereas "Digital customer channels," "Digital visibility," "Privacy," "Global protest movements," and "Social inequality" were already rated as drivers of innovation within the next 3 years.
• The remaining 53 trends were rated as drivers of innovation in the next three to six years. No trend was not assessed as an innovation driver at all.
• If we look exclusively at the 15 technological trends, we can see that the trends "Digital data platforms and energy data management", "Further development of system services" followed by "Smart Energy" have achieved the highest influence as well as priority ratings. All considered technological trends were estimated as innovation drivers in the next three to six years.

Below you will find our interactive trend radar energy, with which you can view and analyze the evaluation of the overall perspective as well as read the respective trend descriptions (by clicking on the trends).

Individual Perspectives:

• In the evaluation of the economy perspective, "Acceleration of the energy transition," "System integration of renewable energies," "Emission reduction & Climate neutrality" and " Cybersecurity " were also rated as very high priorities. "Artificial Intelligence" was assessed as an innovation driver in the next six to ten years and rated high in influence as well as priority.
• In the evaluation Perspective Science, the trend "Virtual Reality" was rated with low influence. In contrast, very high influence have "Digital data platforms & Energy data management", "Modern power-heat systems", "Emissions certificates and emissions trading", "Energy efficiency", "Emissions reduction and climate neutrality"," Renewable Energy System Integration," "Accelerating the Energy Transition," and "Changing Energy Market Design." "Hydrogen generation and infrastructure" were ranked high in both influence and priority, as well as innovation drivers over the next six to ten years. While "Europeanization of the electricity market" was ranked high in influence, the priority was low.
• In the evaluation of the Intermediaries perspective, "Energy efficiency" was rated as a very high priority, in addition to "Emissions reduction and climate neutrality". Whereas "Augmented Reality", "Liquefied Natural Gas", "Sharing Economy", "Biologization of Industry or Mobility" and "System Responsibility in Change" were rated with low priority. Thus, "System Responsibility in Change" was rated high in influence and low in priority.

Stakeholder Perspectives in Comparison:

• "Cybersecurity" was rated very high in priority by participants from the business community. No other survey group prioritized this trend as highly for themselves.
• Furthermore, "rebound effects" were rated as high in influence by intermediaries, whereas experts from business and academia rated the influence of this trend as medium.
• "Liquefied Natural Gas" was rated low in priority by all survey groups. Business and academic experts rated the impact of this trend as medium, while intermediaries rated it as low.
• "Blockchain" was rated high in influence by intermediaries, whereas participants from business and academia rated the influence of this trend as medium.
• "Advanced power-to-heat systems" were rated as innovation drivers in the next three to six years by all three survey groups. Participants from business and academia ranked this trend as a high priority and intermediaries as a medium priority.
• "Internet of Things" was rated as high in priority by participants from academia, whereas participants from business and intermediaries rated it as medium in priority.
• "Emissions reduction and climate neutrality" was rated as very high in priority by all three survey groups. Again, "Acceleration of the energy transition" was rated as very high in influence by the three survey groups.

Conclusion

In conclusion, very similar assessments of the trends between the survey groups can be identified, such as for "emission reduction and climate neutrality" or "energy efficiency". In contrast, differences in the trend assessments between the stakeholder perspectives can also be identified, such as for "cybersecurity" or "system responsibility in transition". In addition, it can be seen that a high influence rating (what is generally rated as important) does not necessarily entail a high priority rating (what is rated as important in one's own company / sphere of influence).

The trend radar energy is to support acting of the energy industry in the context of the strategic foresight early and purposefully with trends to argue and on the radar results based, individual derivations for the own business activity to meet to be able.

The survey results should be reflected from the point of view that the assessments were carried out at the end of 2021 and therefore cannot reflect the impact of current world political events. The war in Ukraine has drastically shifted the view on energy issues. For this reason, we plan to repeat the survey in the fall and then publish a more detailed report on the changes. We promise to gain further insights from this.

The results of the Energy Trend Radar show us how and in what way trend-based influences affect the industry through assessments by players in the Bavarian energy industry. We process and analyze these results and use them as a basis for our own deductions for the thematic network work of the energy specialization field.

• Cybersecurity is a core topic that permeates many technologies. Connecting the energy system to the Internet simultaneously creates a threat opportunity regarding cyber attacks that must be blocked. Here, awareness must be created and solutions communicated as to how the security of the systems can be achieved.
• The acceleration of the energy turnaround is not only a political goal, but now also an economic requirement. Here it is important to show the various possibilities and to promote this development towards self-sufficiency through networking of actors (passive and active).
• Energy efficiency is the most effective energy policy: energy that does not have to be generated without affecting the functionality of the industry as well as the end users has the greatest effect on the energy budget. Here it is important to support each other through exchange among industries with the help of sector coupling (heat, mobility and power sector) and thus accelerate the energy transition.

The basis for the approach is the 3 jump of the energy transition (Energy Atlas Bavaria, o. D. [1]): Reduce energy demand, energy efficiency (e.g. BEEN-i (Bayern Innovativ GmbH, o. D. [2])) and substitution by renewable energies.

Sources:

[1] Energy Atlas of Bavaria. (n.d.). THE ENERGY-3-JUMP. Retrieved August 22, 2022, from https://www.energieatlas.bayern.de/energieatlas/energiedreisprung.html
[2] Bayern Innovativ GmbH. (n.d.). BEEN-i energy efficiency network - Exchange and save energy and costs. Retrieved September 5, 2021, from https://www.bayern-innovativ.de/de/seite/been-i-de