The biogas plant will soon be without power
A Fraunhofer study does not view biogas as a sufficient basis for the long-term maintenance of gas networks. Declining demand and rising network costs could accelerate the phase-out.
July 7, 2026
Source: E & M powernews
A study by Fraunhofer IFAM commissioned by the Munich Environmental Institute and “GasWende” concludes that biogas cannot ensure the continued operation of gas networks through 2045.
According to the Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Technology and Applied Materials Research (Fraunhofer IFAM), the increased use of biogas envisaged in the new Heating Act cannot ensure the economic operation of many gas networks. This is the conclusion of a study conducted by the research institute on behalf of the Munich Environmental Institute and the “GasWende” initiative.
The background to this is the planned amendment to the Heating Act. According to the federal government’s plans, the installation of new gas heating systems will once again be permitted indefinitely. In doing so, the government is relying, among other things, on an increasing share of renewable gases in the natural gas grid. For existing heating systems, a “green gas quota” is planned to increase the share of biogas in the grid. Anyone installing a new gas heating system starting in 2029 will also be required to provide proof of a supply contract with a gradually increasing share of biogas.
Gas Networks Are Becoming Too Expensive
According to the study’s sponsors, the research examines whether—and at what cost—renewable gases can be delivered to households via existing gas grids in the future. To this end, the authors calculated the gas costs per household under various gas grid utilization scenarios.
According to the study’s findings, gas networks in residential areas are expected to be decommissioned on a large scale by 2045 at the latest, despite the planned regulations. The reason is that demand for gas will continue to decline as many households switch to heat pumps and district heating networks. As a result, the costs of operating and maintaining the networks will be spread across an ever-smaller number of customers, causing network fees—and thus gas prices—to rise.
Biogas Plus Grid Costs Are Outpaced by Heat Pumps
According to the study, under these conditions, energy providers will no longer be able to offer competitive gas prices by 2045 at the latest. The addition of biogas does not change this, as it is scarce compared to fossil natural gas and associated with higher costs.
Till Irmisch, energy policy analyst at the Munich Environmental Institute, explains: “The combination of rising biogas shares and higher network fees will be unaffordable for many consumers.” The green gas quota stipulated in the Heating Act and the so-called “bio-staircase” would therefore be unable to prevent the economic decline of the gas networks.
According to the Munich Environmental Institute, numerous gas network operators and municipalities are already planning the gradual decommissioning of their gas networks. Irmisch considers this development sensible. In his assessment, an early transition to heat pumps and district heating networks could limit energy costs and reduce macroeconomic costs.
Avoiding Bad Investments
The authors also point to the lifespan of gas heating systems, which they estimate at around 25 years. Against this backdrop, they believe that newly installed gas heating systems could turn into bad investments if the supply via the gas networks is discontinued before the end of their useful life. Irmisch criticizes the federal government for failing so far to explain how a nationwide supply of biogas to households is to be ensured. In his view, the Fraunhofer IFAM study shows that the expectation of a long-term biogas supply via existing gas networks is associated with significant economic risks.
The Fraunhofer IFAM’s calculations regarding gas networks are available online.
Author: Susanne Harmsen