Study Identifies Obstacles to the Hydrogen Market

July 9, 2026

Source: E & M powernews

A study by the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) offers suggestions on how the hydrogen rollout in Germany could gain momentum.

According to the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), the market development of hydrogen is lagging behind political expectations. A study commissioned by the DIHK and conducted by the consulting firm R2B Energy Consulting GmbH identifies the causes as a combination of high costs, regulatory uncertainties, a lack of infrastructure, unclear demand, and a lack of investment certainty. The study, titled “Milestones for a Successful Hydrogen Rollout by 2040,” was presented on July 8 in Berlin.

According to the DIHK, individual measures are not sufficient to get the market off the ground. Instead, supply, demand, infrastructure, and regulation must be better coordinated. The study is based not only on analyses of the entire value chain but also on interviews with companies from various market segments.

Costs That Are Difficult to Calculate Are a Key Obstacle

Sebastian Bolay, Head of the Energy, Environment, and Industry Division at the DIHK, explained that hydrogen remains indispensable for the climate-neutral transformation of industry and the energy system. “Many companies are fundamentally willing to invest, but they need reliable framework conditions to do so,” he said. Germany and the European Union are facing important decisions regarding the revision of the National Hydrogen Strategy and the European guidelines for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO). According to Bolay, these offer the opportunity to align regulations more closely with the needs of companies.

The study identifies the currently difficult-to-calculate costs as the primary obstacle. High electricity prices and regulatory uncertainties—such as those regarding grid fees for electrolysers—are hindering investment. At the same time, the necessary infrastructure is often lacking outside the planned core hydrogen network. As a result, sales prospects for producers also remain uncertain.

According to Lukas Strickling, Manager of Quantitative Analysis at R2B and co-author of the study, potential customers demand, above all, reliable prices and a secure supply. Since long-term supply contracts have often been unfeasible to finance so far, both suppliers and customers are adopting a wait-and-see approach.

From the authors’ perspective, hydrogen should initially be used primarily in industrial sectors that cannot be electrified, or can only be electrified with great difficulty—such as the chemical, steel, and raw materials industries. In the long term, hydrogen could also serve as an energy storage solution for periods of low wind and solar power generation.

In the short term, the study recommends securing the project and market momentum that has already been set in motion through 2030. According to the authors, this includes more pragmatic RFNBO rules, a reliable framework for grid tariffs, a workable “book-and-claim” solution for certificates of origin, and the early designation of hydrogen storage facilities as strategic infrastructure.

By 2035, the transition to a growing market must be successful. This will require accelerated expansion of regional hydrogen distribution networks, better risk mitigation, and greater investment certainty. By 2040, the authors propose a long-term vision for the role of hydrogen in the energy system. A transparent roadmap and independent monitoring should determine in which applications hydrogen is used as a priority and how the market can develop gradually without permanent subsidies.

Pragmatic Solutions Called for

Strickling also advocated for a more pragmatic approach to the requirements for green hydrogen. In his view, renewable energy generation facilities should not be tied exclusively to individual electrolysers. Instead, certificates of origin could ensure that the electricity used comes from renewable sources. Regional or temporal differentiation is also conceivable, allowing electrolyzers to be operated more intensively during periods of high wind and solar power generation.

Strickling expressly warned against the market ramp-up failing. “If hydrogen remains a niche application in the long term, we risk either failing to meet climate protection targets or creating competitive disadvantages for industry, with corresponding consequences for economic strength and security of supply,” he said. (sh)

The DIHK study on the H2 ramp-up is available for download as a PDF.

Author: Susanne Harmsen