New Estimate of Hydrogen Demand
The National Hydrogen Council expects hydrogen demand to rise sharply by 2045 and is calling for better political and economic conditions to support the market's ramp-up
June 26, 2026
Source: E & M powernews
The National Hydrogen Council estimates that demand for hydrogen will reach up to 555 billion kWh in the late 2040s. The need for political action is “more urgent than ever.”
From the energy transition’s beacon of hope to its problem child: green hydrogen has fallen short of expectations. So much so that the National Hydrogen Council (NWR) is now sounding the alarm. The council writes in its recently updated demand estimate that there is currently little sign of a hydrogen ramp-up. To meet the hydrogen demand required for the transformation, “there is a need for political action that is more urgent than ever.”
In the paper, the NWR reassesses previously published demand estimates in light of current political and economic developments. For the early 2030s, the council anticipates a total hydrogen demand of between 60 and 115 billion kWh. For the late 2030s and early 2040s, the estimate ranges from 155 to 295 billion kWh. Looking ahead to the late 1940s, the NWR cites a range of 275 to 555 billion kWh—equivalent to 8.25 to 16.65 million metric tons.
The Council sees the greatest demand coming from industry. For the early 1930s, it estimates 30 to 55 billion kWh. For the late 1940s, it estimates demand at 140 to 300 billion kWh. The main consumers: the chemical and steel industries.
Lower Demand in the Chemical Industry
In the steel industry, the direct reduction plants currently planned could generate a hydrogen demand of up to 400,000 metric tons per year. However, this would require that climate-neutral hydrogen be available in sufficient quantities and at competitive prices, according to the NWR.
As for the chemical industry, estimates are lower than previous assumptions due to declining production volumes and changed economic conditions. The NWR projects a demand for hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives of between 107 and 243 billion kWh by 2045—14 to 28 percent less than in the 2024 forecast.
For the “mobility” sector, the committee expects demand to reach 25 to 30 billion kWh in the early 2030s. About 7 billion kWh of this will come from hydrogen derivatives. By the late 2040s, demand is projected to reach 75 to 135 billion kWh, with derivatives accounting for about 40 billion kWh.
Demand in the electricity and district heating sectors will reach approximately 5 to 30 billion kWh by 2035. According to the NWR’s projections, as hydrogen costs decline and hydrogen-compatible gas-fired power plants are gradually introduced, demand will rise to 60 to 120 billion kWh by 2045.
Not without a “clear political commitment”
The Council cites “the further escalation of the geopolitical situation, growing uncertainty due to U.S. policy, and new policy priorities at the European and federal German levels” as the reasons for the new estimates. Whether in industry, transportation, or electricity and heat supply—the same applies to all sectors: “A clear political commitment and the necessary legal and regulatory conditions must be established, or at least improved, before the stated needs can actually be met,” comments Council member Kirsten Westphal.
The committee criticizes the current regulatory framework and the difficult financial conditions for hindering investment. “Insufficient supply volumes coupled with constant or rising demand, in turn, drive up costs, which in turn jeopardizes numerous projects along the entire value chain, forcing them to come to a standstill or even be abandoned.”
Author: Manfred Fischer