Life is characterized by many decisions - an average of 20,000 per day. That can also be a burden. It would be nice if these decisions were taken away from you and you didn't have to make decisions all the time, wouldn't it?
This is exactly what happens in the novel "The Dice Man" by Luke Rhinehard. The protagonist of the same name makes every decision of the day with a dice. Luke Rhinehard, a psychiatrist, gives up all control over his life and lets chance decide for him - or rather: a dice. Dice therapy is born. What begins as a harmless experiment grows into an anarchic movement. The dice decides on everyday trivialities, but also on serious life decisions - even if they are morally questionable or even dangerous.
Of course, you shouldn't leave your life so drastically to chance. This is also shown by the dramatic and comedic course of the novel. However, this extreme example raises the question: How much room do we give to chance in our lives - and in companies? The saying "Leave nothing to chance" stands for meticulous planning, maximum control and minimum surprises. Sounds efficient. But what if the unplanned is the key to ground-breaking innovation?
Serendipity: the happy coincidence
Serendipity - a buzzword that is increasingly being used in connection with coincidences in the innovation process. But what exactly does it mean?
Serendipity can be translated as "happy coincidence". It describes the phenomenon of coming across an enriching or valuable discovery by unexpected chance. In the company, serendipity ensures the emergence of unplanned innovations or solutions. The most important characteristic of serendipity is that it cannot be planned or predicted in advance - otherwise something would no longer be a coincidence. Nevertheless, it is possible to give chance a helping hand in order to promote serendipity in the company. But how is it possible to generate innovations with the help of "assisted chance"?
Giving chance a helping hand
Serendipity doesn't just happen - it needs an environment that encourages these unexpected discoveries. Companies can create targeted framework conditions that "give chance a helping hand" and thus drive innovation. Creative methods that break down entrenched thought patterns are helpful here, for example. Putting yourself in the shoes of others, for example stakeholders, can give you a flash of inspiration through new perspectives. But all the different methods alone are not enough. Trust and an open corporate culture are essential and create a secure basis for employees to dare to express unusual thoughts. A culture of error ensures that experiments are not seen as a risk, but as an opportunity. Flexibility in processes is just as important - rigid processes prevent innovative ideas from emerging spontaneously. Instead, companies should create targeted spaces for exchange and creative freedom in which serendipity can arise - be it through interdisciplinary teams, inspiring workshops or deliberately planned "thinking breaks" in which innovation can grow. To summarize: courage and freedom for exchange in order to allow creative processes to flow help the happy coincidence in the company to take off.
"Serendipity doesn't just happen - it needs an environment that favors these unexpected discoveries."
Wildcards - the unpredictable
Wuhan, 2019: a market full of animals - both dead and alive. What nobody knows is that in the midst of the colorful hustle and bustle, one of the greatest disasters of modern times is looming. A virus jumps from animal to human and changes the world with a force that no one could have foreseen. Lockdowns, economic emergencies, but also lightning-fast innovations in medicine and the world of work - all this happened as a result of this supposedly small, unforeseeable moment.
This is exactly what is known as a wild card - an event that seems extremely unlikely but has enormous consequences. In addition to the coronavirus pandemic, there are many other examples: the 2008 financial crisis and the fall of the Berlin Wall. Wildcards are the wild cards of futurology - they defy traditional forecasts because they are not based on linear developments, but on sudden leaps, often triggered by the interplay of chaotic factors. Wildcards are a double-edged sword for companies: they can turn the market completely upside down, but they can also open up new opportunities. The coronavirus pandemic, for example, has caused a crisis in the cultural and hospitality industry, but has driven vaccine research forward and turned mask manufacturers into billion-dollar companies. Dealing with the unpredictable in the right way makes the difference between success and loss.
Foresight - the attempt to look into the crystal ball
But is it even possible to predict the unexpected? This is where foresight comes into play - a method that helps companies to prepare for various future scenarios. Instead of venturing a single, reliable forecast, foresight involves developing alternative futures: What happens if a new technology dominates the market faster than expected? How will the business area change if a wild card such as a global energy crisis occurs?
While traditional planning methods rely on probabilities, foresight uses creative approaches such as scenario techniques to actively incorporate uncertainties into the strategy. Bayern Innovativ GmbH uses such methods in a targeted manner to not only develop innovations from the present, but to make them fit for the future. In this way, companies can not only react to coincidences, but also create targeted spaces in which innovations - whether intentional or accidental - can emerge.
Diced or planned? Innovation between chance and strategy
Somewhere between "leave nothing to chance" and the anarchic dice therapy of the Dice Man lies the truth. It is clear that chance can be an innovator. Innovation needs structure, but also enough room for the unexpected. Serendipity does not happen in rigid systems, and wildcards cannot be planned away. Companies that learn to play with chance instead of fearing it have a decisive advantage.
The dice thrower has left his life to chance - with dramatic consequences. But perhaps his method also contains an insight for the world of innovation: if you always play it safe, you will miss the best opportunities. The key is not to roll the dice on everything, but to provide fertile ground for innovation and to see chance as a kind of fertilizer that promotes the blossoming of innovations. After all, many major breakthroughs did not follow a strict plan.