05.06.2023
Source: Energy & Management Powernews
Germany could cover its entire heat demand up to 200 degrees Celsius from non-fossil sources such as geothermal energy, waste heat and water heat, says Agora.
According to a recent study by the think tank Agora Energiewende, the available supply of environmental and waste heat in Germany far exceeds the heat demand. Via large heat pumps, the potential for buildings and industrial process heat up to 200 degrees Celsius could be provided. In total, the potential heat output that heat pumps can provide from CO2-free sources, even without using ambient air, amounts to around 1.5 billion kWh, according to the study in collaboration with the Fraunhofer Institute.
Heat potential is offered by near-surface and deep geothermal energy, lake and river water, industrial waste heat, wastewater, coal mines and data centers, according to the study. On the other hand, annual heat demand for temperatures up to 200 degrees Celsius totals just over 1 billion kWh. Simon Müller, director of Germany at Agora Energiewende, said, "With large-scale heat pumps, these heat sources can be used on a large scale for district heating and in industry."
An annual 4,000 MW capacity expansion needed by 2045
Already today, large-scale heat pumps can provide the temperatures needed in heating networks, usually 90 to 110 degrees Celsius, as well as the process heat needed in industrial manufacturing, up to 200 degrees Celsius. At present, however, the share of large heat pumps in German heat generation is still negligible, at 60 MW of installed capacity. By 2045, large heat pumps are expected to provide over 70 percent of district heating in Germany, where they will largely replace natural gas. This is according to long-term scenarios commissioned by the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWK).
To achieve this, it would need an average addition of 4,000 MW of new large-scale heat pump capacity annually by 2045. The Agora study cites three prerequisites for a rapid ramp-up of large-scale heat pumps: it would need a clear expansion path based on binding municipal heating planning, the reduction of price disadvantages compared to fossil fuels, and a strategic expansion of heat pump supply, for example through the standardization of production processes.
Model Scandinavia
In the Scandinavian countries, large heat pumps have long been on the advance and supply residential areas with climate-neutral heat on a large scale, said Müller. In addition to the two pioneers - Norway, with a share of large-scale heat pumps in district heating supply of around 13 percent, and Sweden, with a share of over 8 percent - Finland, Denmark and France are also above the European average of 1.2 percent.
"By 2045, more than a quarter of homes in Germany should be able to heat with green district heating," Müller quoted from the federal plan. This presupposes that we in the municipalities plan the heat turnaround with foresight and that the regulatory framework for district heating ensures an attractive and affordable offer for customers, he warned.
In addition, large-scale heat pump projects must become more attractive for district heating operators compared to fossil solutions. Currently, he said, there are still disadvantages for electricity-powered large heat pumps compared with fossil-fuelled cogeneration plants when it comes to subsidies. In addition, in some cases, large heat pumps that run on fossil waste heat - for example, gas-fired cogeneration plants - are subsidized, creating new fossil dependencies, the study criticizes.
"With a reform of the Combined Heat and Power Act and an increase in the subsidy program for heating networks, this imbalance can be remedied and the heat turnaround accelerated," Müller said. This is urgently needed, he added, because heat generation up to 200 degrees Celsius for buildings and industry currently still accounts for more than three-quarters of Germany's natural gas consumption and is responsible for more than a quarter of Germany's greenhouse gas emissions. "We urgently need incentives for green heating solutions instead of blocking the ramp-up with uncoordinated support systems," Müller said. This would also give manufacturers planning certainty and allow them to establish standard industrial production, he added.
The Large-Scale Heat Pump Study by Agora is available for download as a PDF.
Author: Susanne Harmsen
