Climate-neutral Germany: Fraunhofer study shows regional transformation paths

07.01.2025

Source: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

In a new study, the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE has analyzed possible paths to climate neutrality in Germany by 2045.

With the help of the REMod model, cost-optimized transformation paths for the energy sector, industry, transport and buildings were developed at country level. Direct electrification plays a key role here, while hydrogen is used specifically in industry and transport.

Regional differences and scenarios

The study examines four scenarios, including

• Open technology: Maximum flexibility in technology selection.
• Efficiency: Higher climate targets, increased expansion of renewable energies.
• Persistence: Delayed conversion, greater dependence on negative emission technologies.
• Robust: Consideration of geopolitical uncertainties.

Electricity demand could double by 2045. Northern Germany in particular will play a central role due to wind energy and hydrogen production.

Investments and grid expansion

The costs of the transformation amount to an average of 52 billion euros per year, with considerable savings potential through the accelerated expansion of renewable energies and efficiency measures. Grid expansion, particularly between northern and southern Germany, is crucial for a stable energy supply.

The study provides decision-making aids for policymakers and underlines the importance of regional strategies for a successful energy transition.

Further information can be found on the website of the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE