The future of nuclear fusion

The PLAYING RULES

For a long time, people were puzzled: Is the physics behind it the jackpot or even a bluff? Fusion has long been considered an interesting hand, but crucial cards were missing. But many of these have been revealed in recent years. "It's no longer a question of whether plasma physics works. Because we now know that it works. Both laser fusion and magnetic fusion have provided impressive demonstrations over the last ten years," fusion expert Alison Christopherson recently told us at FusionX:Global in Munich.

So the rules of the fusion game have changed. Where the big question used to be whether the physics would work, industry logic now dominates: who can scale faster, build cheaper, finance smarter? This is also evident in discussions with investors. It's about supply chains and scaling, no longer about theory. The questions are moving from research to practice.

The PLAYING RISK

This change also has an impact on the risk for players. Investor Paul Murphy provides some interesting thoughts on this after attending FusionX:Global in Munich. He reports: His previous mental model on fusion had been wrong. He thought it was a classic physics problem and then the rest would follow. But this "rest" is already the "hard part" that needs to be solved. In other words, issues such as factories, machines, material chains, production, repeatability and scalability.

This approach also changes the risk component. A physical risk is difficult to estimate from a capital perspective. Engineering risk, on the other hand, can be reduced step by step. For example, through prototypes, tests and industrial learning curves. Every demonstrator built provides data, reduces uncertainties and makes the next step easier to plan, faster and often cheaper. And, of course, requires capital. A lot of capital. The next important card in the merger.

The GAME Stake

How quickly will the players continue to raise the stakes? The blinds are already well set, because the investment momentum in the merger is stronger than ever. According to FusionX, over 13.8 billion euros have been invested globally in the private sector alone to date, the majority of this in the last five years. Nevertheless, a lack of capital has been described as the biggest bottleneck in the industry.

The path to a commercial power plant takes time, equipment, infrastructure, special components, teams and stamina, and therefore enormous amounts of money. But capital is not just an enabler, it is fuel: companies must use venture capital to clock up progress, deliver performance and define milestones in order to obtain further capital. So: reveal your cards.

Paul Murphy nevertheless weighs up: capital is necessary, but not sufficient. A lot of money alone does not build a power plant. It takes the right combination of technological approach, team, industrial path and operational excellence. Capital therefore buys time, but not success. This comes from the interplay of many factors. The stakes are raised by other cards on the table. Cards like the milestones.

The GAMECHANGER

"We are currently experiencing a parallelism of milestones for the development of the fusion industry," explained Tobias Gotthardt, State Secretary at the Bavarian State Ministry of Economic Affairs, Regional Development and Energy. A decisive scientific breakthrough was achieved in 2022. In the USA (NIF), it was possible for the first time to generate more energy from a fusion reaction than was contained in the fuel itself. At the same time, Wendelstein 7-X in Germany demonstrated that plasma can be operated stably and continuously. Two results, two answers: fusion works. Fusion can be controlled.

Science has delivered. And with its milestones came capital. And now, in 2026, Bavaria has made a big statement: The Free State is cooperating with Proxima Fusion, the Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics and RWE to realize a demonstrator and a power plant in the 2030s. Hundreds of millions are also being invested here, as set out in a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). But billions are needed. The federal government is also setting a milestone with the planned "hubs for fusion": research, industry and regional locations are to be bundled together in three thematic competence centers for laser fusion, magnetic fusion and the fuel cycle and materials development. These hubs will create the missing ecosystem between experiment and power plant. This means that fusion in Germany is no longer just being researched, but is being systematically organized towards industrial reality.

In order for the investment in fusion to continue to increase, more such milestones are needed in the future. The industry is eagerly awaiting the net gain. This is proof that a plant can supply more energy than it consumes. For Paul Murphy, this is the decisive commercial tipping point. He believes that whoever reaches this point first will attract capital on a scale that will accelerate the rest: more money, more supply chain, falling costs, growing lead.

And Bavaria? After the MoU with Proxima Fusion, the Free State of Bavaria holds further strong hands. There are other start-ups such as Marvel Fusion and Gauss Fusion, which hold joint playing cards with investors and research. The task now is to work together with them to gather information for practical commercial application.

The CHEATCODE

So what do you do with the upcoming demonstrators? The answer: you collect knowledge that can accelerate everything. Because fusion is learning, and faster than many would have thought possible just a few years ago. Every demonstrator, every experiment, every published curve is not an isolated result, but part of a cumulative, global knowledge process.

What is ignited in a laboratory in California is further developed in Europe. What is stable in Greifswald is industrialized elsewhere. And what is being scaled up with governmental force in China is also setting new reference points for speed and ambition in this country. The progress of fusion is therefore not a single breakthrough, but a collective, global learning effect. Partnerships are the accelerator of these insights.

The KOOP mode

Fusion is still not a solo project. It is not created in ONE laboratory, not in ONE company, not in ONE place, but in cooperation. Test facilities, material platforms and demonstrators consume sums that individual players can hardly afford. It is not only important to have strong partners from industry, but also from politics. The state sees itself as a strong partner and driver, particularly in Bavaria and Germany. Successful programs accelerate the merger and use public funds to create incentives for other investors to get involved financially - a key locational advantage that we have in this country.

The PLAYING PARTNERS

The partnership does not end with financing. It continues in the industry, especially in the supply chain: magnets, materials, special components, vertical integration, lead times. If one link is missing, the whole system grinds to a halt.
But this is precisely where the chicken-and-egg problem lies. Suppliers only invest when a market becomes visible. Merger companies need these capacities today in order to fulfill their roadmaps. The answer lies in coordination, targeted investment and connecting to existing industries.
In Europe in particular, the supply chain is becoming a strategic issue. Those who cannot manufacture or control critical components themselves are not building a robust energy system, but a dependency. Technological sovereignty is thus turning from a political buzzword into an industrial must.

The SHOWDOWN

At the beginning, we promised an honest look at the game. And that includes this rule of the game: in the end, it's not the best cards in your hand that decide, but the last card on the table. The so-called "river". This card answers the question: will fusion power be affordable?

This is the real showdown of this card game. Net Gain is the next big card that will raise the stakes. But only with falling costs, stable supply chains and scalable assets will it become clear whether a strong hand will also become a viable business model. The players have a knowledge advantage. They know this river card and can therefore go all-in. Because the royal flush is within reach.