Heating industry warns of historic low in sales

29.07.2025

Source: E & M powernews

Sales of heating systems continue to fall sharply. The industry association BDH is therefore calling for political guidelines and stable funding conditions for the energy transition in the building sector.

The German heating industry is once again reporting falling sales figures for the first half of 2025. According to the Federal Association of the German Heating Industry (BDH), only around 296,500 heating appliances were sold in the first six months - a decrease of 22% compared to the same period last year. The industry had already recorded a massive slump of 46% in 2024. If this trend continues, it could be the weakest annual result in a decade and a half.

The decline is therefore affecting conventional systems in particular: Sales of oil and gas-based heating systems slumped by up to 81 percent. Heat pumps, on the other hand, increased by 55 percent to 139,500 appliances sold, while biomass heating systems rose by 42 percent. For the first time, more heat pumps than gas heating systems were sold in the first half of 2025. Despite this growth, heat pumps are still falling well short of the German government's political target. It had aimed for an annual installation rate of 500,000 appliances from 2024.

Political uncertainty is slowing down investment

The BDH sees the ongoing uncertainty among consumers as the main reason for the weak market development. According to the association, the planned revision of the Building Energy Act (GEG), unclear statements on future subsidy conditions and what is perceived as contradictory communication from politicians are causing many households to postpone investments in modern heating technology. This reluctance also applies to energy-efficient refurbishment measures.

"The current development not only jeopardizes the climate policy objectives in the building sector, but also the competitiveness and future viability of a key industry," warns the BDH. With around 84,000 employees, the heating industry is an important industrial value-added sector in Germany. In order to restore the confidence of investors, the association is calling for rapid clarification of the regulatory requirements as well as stable and predictable funding instruments. The BDH is offering to work with the German government to develop practicable regulations for the heating transition in existing buildings.

The need for renovation is high

According to the German Energy Agency's (Dena) building report, around four million heating systems in Germany are more than 30 years old. In order to achieve the climate protection targets in the building sector, more than one million heating systems would have to be modernized every year in the future. According to the BDH, this requires not only legal requirements but also stable framework conditions for subsidies and energy costs in order to create investment security.

13.5 million households in Germany live in their own home. According to a representative survey by the Allensbach Institute for Public Opinion Research, 15 percent already heat with a heat pump and a growing proportion of up to 40 percent are planning to switch. For manufacturers and tradespeople, this would result in a sales potential of several billion euros - provided that the political framework conditions are right.

Carolin Friedemann, Managing Director of the Institute for Climate-Neutral New Construction and Insulation Technology (IKND), is currently observing a veritable heat pump boom: "More and more homeowners are opting for heat pumps out of conviction. But uncertainty is poison for heating costs, SMEs and the climate."

Cost comparison shows advantage for heat pumps

According to calculations by the consumer portal Finanztip, the total cost of a new natural gas heating system over 20 years is over 25,500 euros. Although the purchase price for the natural gas boiler is often only around 8,000 euros according to the provider, CO2 costs and other operating costs drive the total costs up significantly.

In comparison, a heat pump in a detached house often costs around 30,000 euros gross, but this amount is significantly reduced by state subsidies. For many households, a 50 percent subsidy is realistic, and even up to 21,000 euros for low-income households. This means that the actual financial burden is in some cases significantly lower than that of a new natural gas heating system. In addition, this technology is future-proof, whereas gas heating systems may eventually run out of fuel.

According to the latest Climate Protection Report 2025 from the Federal Ministry for the Environment, the building sector continues to produce too many emissions. If the trend towards heat pumps continues, owner-occupiers alone could save around ten percent of today's CO2 emissions in the building sector every year by 2029.

The BDH's market development in the heating market is available to download as a PDF.

Author: Susanne Harmsen