Drastic decline in coal and oil forecast

08.10.2025

Source: E & M powernews

The Norwegian consulting firm DNV has presented another "Energy Transition Outlook". For the first time, the time horizon examined extends to the year 2060.

The ninth edition of the 2025 "Energy Transition Outlook" recently published by the Norwegian consultancy DNV describes the expected global development of energy supply and demand as well as CO2 emissions up to 2060, supplemented by an analysis differentiated by ten world regions.

No scenarios were modeled to show a range of possible developments; instead, this is the Group's "best guess", i.e. the most realistic assessment from its point of view. Another distinguishing feature compared to similar studies by other institutions is the choice of time horizon, which for the first time extends to the year 2060. According to DNV's findings, the policy change in the USA will only have a marginal effect on the global energy transformation.

Global primary energy consumption will peak at 696 exajoules (EJ) around 2040 - 8% more than in 2024, which is always the reference year here - and then fall by 4% to 670 EJ (1 EJ = just under 278 billion kWh).

According to DNV, the composition of primary energy consumption will change significantly by 2060. The share of fossil fuels will fall from 80 to 37 percent by 2060. Renewable energies will increase their contribution from 15% to 52%. Nuclear energy will account for 11 percent in 2060 compared to 5 percent in 2024.

Drastic decline in coal, then oil

Coal consumption will fall by 81% by 2060, primarily due to its displacement by green electricity. At the same time, the share of coal in global primary energy consumption will fall from 27% to 5%.

Oil consumption will remain at roughly the current level until 2030 and then decline. By 2060, oil consumption will be 52 percent lower. Its share of primary energy consumption will fall from 27% to 13%.

Global demand for natural gas is expected to rise from 169 to 190 EJ in 2035, followed by a plateau phase until 2040, which will then be replaced by a declining path of up to 131 EJ. The share of natural gas in primary energy consumption will fall from 26 to 20 percent by 2060.

The contribution of renewables will increase 3.5-fold. The rapid growth will be driven primarily by solar and wind, whose share, which amounted to just over 3% in 2024, is set to increase tenfold.

There is a revived interest in nuclear energy due to geopolitical developments, the targeted decarbonization and increasing electrification. The focus is primarily on SMR technology, i.e. new types of small reactors. Primary energy consumption of nuclear power is expected to increase by around 150 percent by 2060.

More than double the hunger for electricity

According to DNV, the global energy transition is primarily characterized by electrification. At 77 trillion kWh (PWh), electricity consumption in 2060 will be 141% higher than in 2024, doubling the share of electricity in covering final energy consumption to 43%.

And electricity will become greener. By 2060, 96 percent is expected to be generated CO2-free. Solar energy will account for 47 percent. Electricity generation from wind power is expected to increase to 32 percent. The contributions from hydropower and nuclear energy are estimated at 8 percent each. The share of fossil fuels will fall from 59% in 2024 to 4%. Electricity consumption increases in all sectors, i.e. transport, buildings, industry and data centers.

Reduced forecasts for hydrogen and CCUS

The outlook for low-carbon hydrogen has been reduced compared to the 2024 edition due to the delayed ramp-up. It is now expected to increase from virtually zero today to 6 million tons in 2030, 165 million tons in 2050 and 259 million tons in 2060. In 2060, 44 percent of hydrogen use will be in transportation and 44 percent in industry. 9 percent will be used in buildings.

DNV comes to the conclusion that energy-related global CO2 emissions will begin to fall in 2026. They are expected to be reduced to 11 billion tons by 2060. That would be a reduction of 68 percent. If this pathway were to occur, temperatures would be expected to rise by 2.2 degrees Celsius by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels. Net-zero emissions would only be expected from 2090 onwards.

The "Energy Transition Outlook: CCS to 2050" can be requested from the DNV website after entering a few personal details.

Author: Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer