UBA expects to fall well short of the 2045 climate target

06.06.2025

Source: E & M powernews

The Federal Environment Agency (UBA) presents new projections on greenhouse gas emissions and clearly sees the 2045 climate target being missed, even with an additional package of measures.

The Federal Environment Agency (UBA) has published its 2025 projection report. The publication assesses the development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany up to 2050. Despite numerous climate protection instruments, the UBA expects both scenarios examined to fall well short of the targets set out in the Federal Climate Protection Act (KSG).

The report is based on two modeling scenarios: the Mit-Maßnahmen-Szenario (MMS), which only takes into account climate protection measures that have already been adopted, and the Mit-Weiteren-Maßnahmen-Szenario (MWMS), which also includes additional planned projects. Both scenarios forecast a 63% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990, which is just short of the statutory target of minus 65%.

According to the UBA, the MMS shows a reduction of just under 84 percent by 2045, while the MWMS shows a reduction of just over 85 percent - in each case excluding the land use sector (LULUCF). This means that the goal of net greenhouse gas neutrality (100 percent reduction) remains well out of reach.

Industry becomes the main emitter

According to the report, the energy sector will see the greatest reduction by 2030 due to the accelerated phase-out of coal and the expansion of renewable energies. From 2028, the energy industry will no longer be the largest emitter. After that, however, the decline flattens out. In 2030, the share of renewable energies in gross electricity consumption will be 76% in the MMS and 74% in the MWMS.

Industry thus becomes the largest source of emissions in the long term. Between 1990 and 2030, emissions in this sector fall by 58% (MMS) and 59% (MWMS). The main instruments for this development remain EU emissions trading, CO2 pricing and climate protection agreements. A corridor calculation shows how deviating developments in industrial production, subsidies or technology costs can affect emissions.

Transport and buildings fall well short of targets

The gap is particularly large in the buildings and transport sectors. According to the UBA, there will still be a difference of 110 million tons of CO2 equivalent in the buildings sector in 2030 compared to the KSG target path. Additional measures in the MWMS reduce this gap only slightly.

In the transport sector, the shortfall by 2030 in the MMS adds up to 169 million tons of CO2 equivalent. Even taking additional measures into account, the difference in the MWMS is still 155 million tons. At 8.7 million, the number of battery-electric cars in 2030 will only reach just under 60 percent of the political target of 15 million vehicles in both scenarios.

In the building sector, the models diverge, particularly after 2030, due to different assumptions regarding the renovation rate and the age structure of heating systems, according to the UBA. In the main modeling, old gas boilers are replaced more quickly than in the methodological sensitivity analysis. There are also differences in heat consumption, which are mainly due to a different assessment of the cost-effectiveness of refurbishments.

Forests do not reduce emissions

According to the report, the LULUCF sector (land use, land use change and forestry) continues to contribute as a source of emissions rather than a sink. The KSG targets for 2030, 2040 and 2045 are clearly missed in both scenarios - partly due to declining forest sinks and high emissions from organic soils.

According to the UBA, the projections show that even with additional climate protection, no scenario meets the target of greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045. The reasons for this include structural deficits in individual sectors, slow technical renewal and continuing emissions in the LULUCF sector.

Overall, the report shows that the legal framework of the KSG remains ambitious, but that its implementation in practice falls short of the requirements in key areas.

The UBA report on greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 is available online.

Author: Susanne Harmsen