On a global scale, the signs are pointing to green electricity

13.11.2025

Source: E & M powernews

In this year's World Energy Outlook, the IEA outlines various scenarios for how the energy supply, electricity mix and CO2 emissions could develop by 2050.

The international community is currently meeting in Brazil for the UN Climate Change Conference Cop 30 to negotiate future global climate protection. The respective nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which are intended to keep global warming well below 2 degrees, are one of the key topics. So far, according to a study by the Brussels-based think tank Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS), the national commitments made by the signatory states are not enough to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees.

While the climate negotiations got underway in Belem, the International Energy Agency (IEA) presented its annual flagship publication, the World Energy Outlook, including an update on energy data, technology and market developments. It models four scenarios of how the global energy supply will develop by 2050. They are based on different assumptions regarding policy and technological implementation. No scenario is to be understood as a forecast. Rather, the different approaches enable a comparison of the consequences of different policies on the security, economic efficiency and environmental and climate compatibility of the energy supply.

Three defined main scenarios

In the Current Policies Scenario (CPS), the development in the energy sector is considered with regard to existing legislation and a slower introduction of technologies, for example due to a lack of political support, is depicted.

In the Stated Policy Scenario (Steps), there is a more rapid change, as in addition to already legally binding regulations, reliable government initiatives are also included in the modeling. However, it is not automatically assumed that all political intentions will be seamlessly implemented in reality and that the previous NDCs will be fully achieved.

In addition to the self-explanatory Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario, the new Accelerating Clean Cooking and Electricity Services Scenario outlines a roadmap to achieve universal access to electricity by 2035 and clean cooking by 2040. At present, 730 million people still have no access to electricity.

Renewable energies and nuclear power increase in all scenarios

In the CPS and Steps scenarios, primary energy consumption continues to increase in future, while a decline is expected in NZE. Renewables more than double by 2050, and even quadruple in NZE compared to 2024. Nuclear energy also increases significantly in all scenarios, most strongly in NZE.

The growth in demand for oil and natural gas continues in CPS until 2050, while coal consumption begins to decline before the end of the current decade. In Steps, the peak in coal demand is accompanied by a flattening of the consumption curve for oil around 2030.

In contrast to the Outlook 2024, the growth in demand for natural gas continues into the 2030s - mainly as a result of changes in US policy and lower gas prices. By 2030, around 300 billion cubic meters of new annual export capacity will come on stream, an increase of 50 percent compared to the currently available LNG supply. Half of this will be built in the USA, another 20 percent in Qatar, followed by Canada. In the NZE scenario, demand for all fossil fuels naturally falls sharply.

The age of electricity

In all scenarios, the IEA assumes that demand for electricity increases more strongly than primary energy consumption. This growth will primarily be covered by renewables. Their share of global electricity generation increases from 32 percent (2024) to 60 percent in CPS, to almost 70 percent in Steps and to almost 90 percent in NZE by 2050.

Nuclear energy is making a comeback. This applies to both traditional large reactors and small modular reactors (SMRs). Nuclear energy is part of the energy strategy in a good 40 countries.

Coal is suffering heavy losses, while gas-fired power generation is still considered to have growth prospects, at least in the CPS and Steps scenarios.

While investment in electricity generation has increased by almost 70 percent to around 1 trillion dollars per year since 2015, the electricity infrastructure has only been expanded at half the rate to an investment volume of 400 billion dollars.

The share of electricity in final energy consumption will increase from 21 percent (2024) to 29 percent in CPS, to 31 percent in Steps and to 55 percent in NZE by 2050.

The 519-page publication, which includes differentiated estimates for the EU and other countries, can be found on the IEA website.

Author: Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer