Slight increase in energy consumption

29.10.2025

Source: E & M powernews

Colder weather is expected to increase Germany's primary energy consumption by around 1 percent this year. CO2 emissions will remain almost unchanged.

Energy consumption in Germany is expected to increase by around 1 percent year-on-year to 10,651 petajoules (PJ) in 2025. This is according to the annual forecast by the Working Group on Energy Balances (Ageb), which was presented on October 28.

The expected slight increase is due to cooler weather; it was significantly colder in February and March 2025 in particular. On the other hand, lower production in the energy-intensive industry had the effect of reducing consumption, as reported by the Ageb.

With the estimated figures, energy consumption in 2025 would be 28.5 percent below the previous peak of 14,905 PJ recorded in 1990. This is despite the fact that the population in Germany has since increased from just under 80 million to 83.5 million by mid-2025 and the price-adjusted gross domestic product has risen by around 50 percent. As a result, primary energy consumption per capita has fallen by a third to 4.3 tons of hard coal units. In relation to economic output, primary energy consumption has roughly halved at the same time.

CO2 emissions in Germany will therefore increase by 0.3% to 574 million tons this year compared to 2024. This would be 45.6 percent below the comparable figure for 1990. In order to achieve the greenhouse gas reduction target of minus 65% set for 2030 with the same reference year, greenhouse gas emissions would therefore have to fall more than twice as much in absolute terms over the next five years as in the past five years.

More oil, gas and renewables, less coal

According to preliminary calculations by the Ageb, domestic primary energy consumption reached 7,721 PJ in the first three quarters of the current year. This was an increase of 1.1 percent over the course of the year. Increases in natural gas, mineral oil and renewables were offset by decreases in hard coal and lignite.

In the first nine months of 2025, 3.7% more natural gas was consumed as an energy source. This was due to increased demand for heating and more electricity generation.

At the same time, consumption of hard coal fell by 2.6%. However, there were different trends in the most important consumption sectors. The use for electricity generation increased by around a fifth. On the other hand, sales to the iron and steel industry fell by just under 15 percent. The consumption of lignite fell by 3.8%, as less was used in the central area of application, electricity generation.

Renewable energies increased by two percent due to higher use for heat supply.

Contributions to primary energy consumption in the first three quarters of 2025

Source: AGEB

Renewables are a central pillar of the electricity mix

According to calculations by the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), electricity consumption in Germany remained stable in the first three quarters of 2025 adjusted for the leap year on a "normal working day" basis.

In contrast, gross domestic electricity generation increased by 1.0% (1.4% on a normal working day basis) to 367 billion kWh. The explanation for these different trends lies in the decrease in the electricity import balance. This is due to the fact that electricity imports in the first nine months of 2025 were 3.9% lower and electricity exports 6.0% higher within a year. As a result, the balance of imports and exports fell to 15.1 billion kWh.

Electricity generation by energy source in the first to third quarter:

• Wind onshore: 19.3 percent
• Wind offshore: 4.8 percent
• Photovoltaics: 21.3 percent
• Biomass including waste counted as renewable: 9.8 percent
• Hydropower: 3.4 percent
• Geothermal energy: 0.1 percent
• Natural gas: 16.3 percent
• Lignite: 14.9 percent
• Hard coal: 5.8 percent
• Oil: 1.0 percent
• Other conventional energies: 3.3 percent

Renewable energies accounted for 215.0 billion kWh or 58.7 percent of gross electricity generation in this period. The high number of hours of sunshine led to an increase in PV production of around a fifth compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

Electricity generation from wind power fell by 11% and from hydropower by 25% due to the weather. Overall, green electricity generation was 1% lower than in the same quarters of the previous year. In relation to gross domestic electricity consumption of 382 billion kWh, the green share reached 56.3 percent.

Author: Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer