Heating costs and electricity demand explode without refurbishment

20.06.2025

Source: E & M powernews

With the implementation of the EU Buildings Directive and the amendment to the Building Energy Act, a decisive course must be set for the German heating transition, demands Deneff.

The implementation of the EU Buildings Directive (EPBD) and the amendment to the German Building Energy Act (GEG) are due shortly. The Deneff efficiency initiative fears that the energy-efficient refurbishment of buildings will be compromised. The association explained this to journalists in a webinar on June 19.

The rate of energy-efficient refurbishment must be at least doubled from the current 0.8 percent per year for the German heating transition. According to a study conducted by the Institute for Ecological Economy Research (IÖW) on behalf of Deneff, the electricity required for heating would otherwise triple, resulting in excessive economic costs.

Based on the IÖW study "The role of building efficiency for the heating transition", the German Business Initiative for Energy Efficiency (Deneff) warns of high cost and risk factors. It would be more economical to provide state funding for the energy-efficient part of renovations that are due to be carried out anyway and thus reduce the heating requirements of buildings than to expand the electricity system for heating unrenovated buildings. In addition, the energy costs for tenants and owners would increase too much if the renovation backlog continued to grow.

According to the study, significantly more speed in the energy-efficient refurbishment of buildings is therefore essential for an affordable heating transition. If the renovation backlog persists, the demand for electricity will multiply. Janis Bergmann, lead author of the IÖW study: "This would have serious consequences for grids, heating costs and security of supply. The interplay between energy efficiency and decarbonization remains central to the implementation of the heating transition."

Three times more electricity generation needed

153 billion kWh more electricity would be required annually for decentralized heating and hot water alone if no further energy refurbishment is carried out. Refurbished buildings, on the other hand, not only reduce energy demand, but also reduce peak loads in winter, increase grid flexibility and reduce the need to expand the grid, according to the IÖW.

On behalf of Deneff, Managing Director Christian Noll emphasized: "Building refurbishment is much more than just climate protection for individual buildings - it is an indispensable system service for our entire energy system." In addition, the refurbishment sector secures value creation in Germany with 600,000 employees. "Without energy-efficient refurbishment, the energy policy triangle of security of supply, affordability and climate protection will collapse - and no federal government can allow that to happen," he appealed.

The newly defined regulatory framework and funding must be reliable in the long term in order to secure the necessary investments. "The entire economy benefits from refurbishment - without it, energy becomes unaffordable for many," said Noll. Efficiency also protects homeowners and tenants alike.

In an unrenovated, small detached house, around 60,000 to 120,000 euros in pure energy costs must be expected by 2045, depending on the development of energy prices. If refurbished to the "Efficiency House 70" level, energy costs will fall by two thirds, with an "Efficiency House 55" even down to just a quarter, according to current studies.

"In addition to the specific building, it depends on the design as well as the financial and regulatory framework conditions of the modernization," concludes Noll. As the costs to society as a whole for the energy system without building refurbishment amount to up to 50 billion euros, promoting efficiency measures is worthwhile, according to Deneff.

The IÖW study on building refurbishment is available to download as a PDF.

Author: Susanne Harmsen