According to a forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for electricity will grow by an average of more than 3.5 percent per year until 2030. This is according to the new "Electricity 2026" report published by the Paris-based IEA. This means that electricity consumption will increase at least two and a half times faster than total energy demand.
According to IEA estimates, the share of renewable energies and nuclear energy in global electricity generation will rise to 50 percent by the end of this decade. At the same time, electricity generation from natural gas will also continue to increase.
The main drivers are the increasing electrification of industry, the further ramp-up of electromobility, the increasing use of air conditioning systems and the expansion of data centers and artificial intelligence applications.
While emerging and developing countries continue to account for the largest share of demand growth, electricity consumption in industrialized countries is also increasing again - after around 15 years of widespread stagnation. According to the IEA, they will account for around a fifth of the global increase in demand by 2030. Renewables overtake coal On the generation side, renewable energies are on the verge of overtaking coal. According to the IEA, electricity generation from renewable energies almost reached the level of coal-fired power generation in 2025 and is now overtaking it, particularly due to the strong expansion of photovoltaics.
Electricity production from nuclear energy also recently rose to a new record level. By 2030, renewables and nuclear power together are expected to supply around half of the world's electricity, up from 42% at present.
Electricity generation from natural gas is also increasing, supported by growing demand in the USA and the continued switch from oil to gas in the Middle East. Coal-fired power generation, on the other hand, is losing importance worldwide and will fall back to the level of 2021 by the end of the decade. As a result, global CO2 emissions from electricity generation will remain roughly constant until 2030, according to the IEA.
The report also points to growing challenges for electricity systems. More than 2,500 GW of projects - including renewable energies, storage and large-scale consumers such as data centers - are currently stuck in grid connection queues worldwide. The use of grid-supportive technologies and regulatory reforms could integrate up to 1,600 GW of these projects in the short term.
The report states: "In this era of electricity, global electricity consumption will grow as fast as adding more than two European Unions by 2030." In order to meet demand, annual investment in electricity grids would have to increase by 50 percent by 2030.
At the same time, the IEA emphasizes the importance of flexibility and security of supply. The expansion of stationary battery storage has increased significantly in recent years. The energy agency highlights California, Texas, Germany, South Australia and the UK in particular. At the same time, electricity prices in many countries are rising faster than incomes, which is putting a strain on households and industry. The IEA is therefore calling for more efficient market rules, more resilient grids and stronger protection of critical infrastructure against extreme weather, cyber attacks and other risks.
The report "Electricity 2026: Analysis and forecast to 2030" can be downloaded from the website of the International Energy Agency.
Author: Stefan Sagmeister |
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