Ariadne report shows paths to climate neutrality in Germany by 2045

10.03.2025

Source: E & M powernews

Researchers from the Kopernikus project Ariadne have investigated the costs of achieving climate neutrality in Germany by 2045 and identified cost-efficient strategies.

According to the "Ariadne Report" presented on March 7, 2025, the investments required for climate neutrality can be largely offset by savings in fossil fuels. Depending on the scenario, additional annual costs of 16 to 26 billion euros are to be expected by 2045, which corresponds to 0.4 to 0.7 percent of current economic output.

"Decarbonization, i.e. the move away from oil, coal and gas, requires a far-reaching transformation of our economy. This transformation will lead to annual investments in the three-digit billion range," said Gunnar Luderer, Head of the Energy Transition Lab at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Deputy Head of the Ariadne project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. "If the switch to innovative and efficient technologies is consistently pursued and these are intelligently networked, this will result in high savings in fossil energy," he added.

Less expenditure on fossil fuels

Fossil energy costs can be drastically reduced through the use of innovative technologies. The transition to a more efficient energy system will not only promote climate protection, but will also lead to considerable savings in climate damage, the authors write. This would more than halve the climate damage costs caused by Germany between 2025 and 2045. The researchers compare various scenarios that differ in terms of hydrogen demand, the degree of direct use of electricity and the general level of energy demand.

A large proportion of the investments would be financed from private funds, while the state would have to play a role in infrastructure, the market launch of new CO2-neutral technologies and reducing the additional burden on private households. The report underlines the importance of European cooperation, for example in the exchange of electricity and the development of a hydrogen network. In industry in particular, alternative energy sources such as hydrogen or e-fuels must be used for sectors that are difficult to electrify, such as the primary industry.

Electrification dominates the economy

The share of wind and solar energy in the electricity mix increases to between 84 and 91 percent by 2035, depending on the scenario. The wholesale electricity price stabilizes in the long term at an annual average of 70 to 80 euros/MWh. Time-variable electricity prices create incentives for more flexible consumption.

"Regional electricity prices also contribute to cost efficiency," said Tom Brown from TU Berlin and co-head of the "Scenarios and Pathways" work package at Ariadne. "In combination with integrated system planning and more overhead lines, the investments required in the transmission grid by 2045 could save around 92 billion euros and thus reduce expenditure for all end customers in Germany."

Germany should become a pioneer for green technologies

The energy transition also offers industrial opportunities, for example through the increased use of electromobility and heat pumps. In the long term, these technologies can not only lead to lower costs, but also secure Germany a pioneering role in the global markets for green technologies.

At 41 to 50 billion euros per year, depending on the scenario, the heating transition in the building sector accounts for a large proportion of investment requirements. Additional costs arise here primarily due to necessary building renovations. Heat pumps, on the other hand, can generally provide space heating more cheaply than fossil heating systems over their entire life cycle: Higher acquisition costs are offset by lower running costs.

According to the researchers, the accelerated switch to electromobility is also more cost-efficient and represents an industrial policy opportunity. By 2030 at the latest, an electric vehicle will pay for itself compared to a combustion engine for almost all end users due to the lower energy and maintenance costs. In 2030, battery-electric cars and trucks will reach a market volume of 80 billion euros per year in Germany.

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the Technical University of Berlin, the Fraunhofer Institutes for Systems and Innovation Research, for Solar Energy Systems and for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology as well as the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich are involved in the project.

The Ariadne Scenario Report study is available for download as a PDF.

Author: Susanne Harmsen