Analysis calls e-fuels unreasonable in the passenger car sector

10.09.225

Source: E & M powernews

The CAR Institute has examined the costs of e-fuels for cars on behalf of the Climate Neutral Germany initiative. They are too expensive and create new dependencies, according to the findings.

A recent analysis carried out by the Center Automotive Research (CAR) in Duisburg on behalf of the Climate Neutral Germany initiative has found that synthetic fuels (e-fuels) do not make economic sense in the passenger car sector. According to the study, e-fuels drive up economic costs, exacerbate Germany's dependence on imports and have low energy efficiency.

Assuming that the switch to electromobility is not fully successful by 2045, there could still be around 15 million combustion cars on German roads. Assuming that these vehicles would then be powered by e-fuels, CAR estimates that, even at conservative production costs of 1.75 euros per liter, this would result in costs of around 22 billion euros per year. This means that a third of the car fleet would cost as much as the entire car fleet with 49 million vehicles and fossil fuels today.

Expensive fuel

In addition, consumers would have to pay significantly higher prices at the pump than the pure production costs. Taxes and levies would make the price per liter considerably more expensive.

"If we continue to assume that e-fuels will be widely used in the passenger car sector, then this is a very expensive way to achieve the politically often demanded technological openness compared to electromobility," said Prof. Helena Wisbert, Professor of Automotive Economics at Ostfalia University Wolfsburg. According to the co-author of the study, electrification remains the economically preferred solution in the passenger car sector.

According to the study, the costs are even more drastic if production prices of 2 euros per liter are assumed. In this scenario, expenditure on e-fuels in 2045 would exceed today's total annual costs for the import of all fossil fuels in Germany. These currently amount to around 81 billion euros. By comparison, the federal budget for 2025 is around 500 billion euros.

E-mobility makes us more independent

For the Climate Neutral Germany Initiative, Managing Director Carolin Friedemann commented: "The study is a reality check for e-fuels and shows very impressively what costs and dependencies the use of e-fuels entails". In her opinion, it is necessary to inform consumers about the consequences at an early stage. "Despite the desire for technological openness, it is necessary to communicate the associated costs to avoid a rude awakening."

In addition to the economic aspects, the analysis also points to geopolitical dependencies. Large-scale domestic production of e-fuels is not possible, meaning that Germany would have to rely on imports. Potential partner countries such as Australia or Chile are far away, and the infrastructure for exporting to Europe is often lacking. According to the study, however, electromobility would significantly reduce the need for fuel imports and thus strengthen security of supply.

According to the authors, the experience of the energy crisis and the current geopolitical uncertainties reinforce the importance of this issue. E-fuels could increase Germany's dependency on energy imports, while the expansion of electromobility reduces costs and dependency.

The study "Scenario analysis on the role of e-fuels in the passenger car sector in Germany in 2045 - an economic calculation" is available to download as a PDF.

Author: Susanne Harmsen