World misses target to triple renewable energies

01.08.2025

Source: E & M powernews

According to the think tank Ember, the majority of countries are planning too little expansion of renewable energies. As a result, the COP28 target of tripling this capacity by 2030 will not be met.

Almost two years after the much-noticed decision by the global community at the COP28 Climate Change Conference to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, it is clear that this ambition has barely been realized in the national policies of many countries. This is the result of a recent analysis by the British think tank Ember, which was completed on July 15, 2025.

The study is based on official data from 96 countries and the EU as a block, which together cover around 97% of global installed renewable capacity, electricity demand and sector-specific emissions. According to the COP28 agreement, the global target is at least 11 million MW of renewable capacity by 2030. However, the national expansion targets currently only add up to just under 7.4 million MW.

This corresponds to an increase of just two percent compared to the status at COP28 in December 2023, meaning that the global target pathway is still heading towards a doubling compared to the base year 2022 - and not towards the agreed tripling. According to Ember, the gap to the target is still around 3.7 million MW.

Varying expansion status

Of the 20 largest electricity producers worldwide, only China and South Africa have so far updated their expansion targets. Other major markets such as the USA, Canada, Russia and Turkey have not yet revised their targets or submitted new ones. It is unlikely that they will be improved this year.
In total, only 22 countries have updated their national targets for 2030 since COP28, seven of which are outside the EU: Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea, the United Kingdom and Vietnam.

Within the EU, 15 member states revised their expansion plans as part of the update of their National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). France and Spain, for example, increased their targets by 5,000 MW and 19,000 MW respectively. Germany and Italy, on the other hand, left their previous figures unchanged.

Hardly any real reaction to COP28

According to the study, it is striking that most of the adjustments date back to routine planning cycles. There were hardly any real reactions to the COP28 agreement. None of the countries linked the revision of the expansion targets with an update of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as part of the Paris Climate Agreement. According to Ember, this indicates that the influence of international agreements on national energy policy has so far been limited.

According to Ember, ambitious national targets are crucial for guiding investments, planning grid infrastructure and ensuring the flexibility of electricity systems. Targets are not so much there to force concrete projects, but to create the conditions for a systematically planned and economically viable expansion. "A target helps governments to build renewable energy where it can be meaningfully integrated," the analysis states.

According to Ember, without a short-term increase in national ambition, the global community risks missing a crucial opportunity: to keep the 1.5 degree target within reach. Tripling renewable capacities is seen as a key prerequisite for substantially reducing emissions from the electricity sector - and thus advancing key climate targets, energy security and economic development at the same time.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) consider the expansion path to 11 million MW by 2030 to be necessary in order to remain compatible with the 1.5 degree target. A total of 198 signatory states to COP28 have committed to this target in the official negotiating text.

133 countries also signed a voluntary commitment. This was followed in November 2024 at COP29 in Baku by the supplementary "Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge", which is supported by 65 countries. However, as Ember's analysis shows, national ambition has so far fallen well short of these multilateral commitments.

The Ember report on the global expansion targets for renewable energy by 2030 is available for download.

Author: Susanne Harmsen