Global sales of e-cars increase enormously once again

20.06.2025

Source: E & M powernews

According to a current market forecast, sales of electric vehicles will increase by 25 percent worldwide this year compared to 2024. Growth is expected to level off after 2025.

The analyst firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) believes that the global sales market for electric vehicles is set for a record year. In the global "Electric Vehicles Outlook" for 2025, market observers expect 22 million electric cars to be sold. That would be 25 percent more than last year.

According to the forecast, China will account for two thirds of sales. This is followed by Europe with 17 percent and the USA with 7 percent. In Europe, the UK ranks first, with Germany in second place after two years of declining sales figures.

The authors of the study recorded strong growth in emerging markets. Sales by Chinese vehicle manufacturers were the decisive factor. BNEF explains the boom in China with prices. The Middle Kingdom is the only country in which e-vehicles are cheaper on average than corresponding combustion engines, they say. The effect on electricity demand: "Electric vehicles in China consumed more electricity in 2024 than the whole of Sweden."

Charging costs as an acceptance criterion

The brake on market development in some countries is not only car prices, but also electricity costs. The cost of charging e-vehicles is rising rapidly in some places, writes BNEF. Charging at home is generally 20 to 60 percent cheaper per kilometer driven than petrol. However, fast charging at public charging stations is more expensive per kilometer than filling up with petrol in many markets in Europe and the USA. "We expect the relative cost of charging to have an increasing impact on the uptake of electric vehicles over time," say the authors.

BNEF expects demand for electric cars, electric commercial vehicles, electric buses and electric two- and three-wheelers to increase 2.4-fold between 2025 and 2030 and eight-fold between 2025 and 2040. "Despite the rapid spread of electric vehicles, only 40 percent of the global passenger car fleet will be electric by 2040 in our economic transition scenario," the experts predict.

As far as commercial vehicles are concerned, their economic efficiency will approach that of diesel vehicles in several countries by 2030. This applies to vans as well as heavy goods and long-distance transport. BNEF predicts that China, South Korea and Scandinavia will have fully electrified city bus fleets by 2040. Europe is largely on schedule to achieve the EU target of 100% zero-emission city bus sales by 2035.

Only a few countries will phase out combustion technology by 2038

In BNEF's "economic transition scenario", only a few countries will achieve a complete phase-out of combustion vehicles by 2038. Nordic countries such as Norway (2036), Sweden (2037) and Finland (2038) would achieve this. Some larger car markets would come close to this. According to the model calculation, China, the UK, France and Germany will have a 90, 87, 83 and 81 percent share of electric vehicles in car sales by 2038.

Trump plays a role

The fact that the global forecast for the period after 2025 is lower than before is primarily due to political changes in the USA. "The national fuel consumption standards are being withdrawn, supporting measures of the Inflation Reduction Act have been canceled or are up for discussion, and California's authority to set its own clean air regulations could be abolished," says the analyst firm. However, Europe has also postponed its short-term targets for CO2 reduction in the transport sector.

Author: Manfred Fischer