18.04.2024
Source: Energie & Management Powernews
A near-record number of approvals, shorter procedures again, a sharp drop in new installations; this is how German onshore wind energy developed in the first quarter.
Despite the improvement in key figures in the first quarter of 2024, Germany will miss its statutory wind onshore expansion target of 69,000 MW for 2024. "This is not achievable, it is unrealistic," said Jürgen Quentin, a consultant at the German onshore wind energy agency FA Wind, on April 17 when he presented the new national figures for additions, dismantling, approvals and existing installations.
The calculation goes like this: At 2,628 MW, the largest installed capacity since records began in 2014 was approved in the first quarter. An upward outlier was only 6,153 MW at the end of 2016, shortly before the start of the competitive subsidy tenders.
Taken together with earlier approvals, Jürgen Quentin expects that 15,500 MW will "probably" be connected to the grid in the next 24 months. According to his calculations, three quarters of these have been awarded a tender.
Strongest expansion in six years
The portfolio has reached 61,500 MW, so it would be nothing short of a miracle if 7,500 MW were suddenly added in the remaining three quarters of the year after the 717 MW expansion in the first quarter.
The increase of 717 MW was the highest in a first quarter for six years. 2019 was the absolute low point with 134 MW, 2017 was the previous record for the start of the year with 1,104 MW.
Jürgen Quentin spoke of an "unprecedented" approval situation. More than two thirds of both the new installations in the first quarter and the new approvals are once again attributable to the "state quadriga" of North Rhine-Westphalia, Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein and Brandenburg, as he calls the states with the most wind power.
Draft horse Brandenburg already lame, NRW soon too?
However, one of the four draft horses, Brandenburg, is lame in terms of approvals with only 167 MW, which only corresponds to fifth place, i.e. virtually dropping out of the quadriga. Quentin attributes this to a kind of moratorium after the Berlin-Brandenburg Higher Administrative Court (OVG) overturned land development plans. However, the FA-Wind consultant is confident that we will see "substantial" approvals from Brandenburg over the course of the year.
If the NRW Renewable Energy Association (LEE) has its way, the federal state, which is by far the biggest driving force with 806 MW of approvals, will be the next to go lame. According to a statement from the association, the black-green coalition wants to push a "transitional regulation" from the state development plan into the state planning law in the state parliament's economic committee, which the OVG NRW in Münster had declared illegal as such.
According to this, the approval authorities can put building applications on hold until new regional plans are in place. This is expected by the end of 2025, which is why LEE Chairman Hans-Josef Vogel speaks of an "instrument of prevention".
"Energy transition can only be achieved with Bavaria"
With a total of 7 percent of new approvals in the first quarter, the southern region was once again more or less a slack region for wind power generation. The region includes the whole of Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg and Saarland as well as parts of Hesse and Rhineland-Palatinate up to around the Main line.
The southern states - apart from Berlin - also have the lowest installed capacity per state area, especially Bavaria with 37 kW per square kilometer, while the average is 172 kW and the frontrunner Schleswig-Holstein has 540 kW. In response to a question about the weighting between political and topographical reasons, Jürgen Quentin replied: "Bavaria has to provide 1.8 percent of its land area despite certain topographical restrictions. Without Bavaria, the energy transition cannot be achieved."
Balanced by a dismantling in a federal state
In the regional expansion ranking, the Quadriga states are far ahead with up to 131 MW per state. Bringing up the rear are Bavaria (+15 MW), Baden-Württemberg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (+10 MW each) and Thuringia (without new connections).
If the dismantling is offset, the installed capacity in Thuringia fell by 9 MW. Lower Saxony saw the largest reduction at 48 MW. According to Quentin, the deinstallation process has become more dynamic. He attributes this to a catch-up effect: during the energy crisis in the second half of 2022, more old wind turbines were still profitable. This is now different now that electricity prices have fallen.
From a good two years to a good two years
Finally, the lengths of procedures have decreased for the first time since 2021, from 25.6 months to 24.7. The median even fell from 22.4 months to 18.2. Ironically, Bavaria was by far the most fixed in the five quarters since the beginning of 2023, with a reduced average of 9.1 months. Trantüte Mecklenburg-Vorpommern took 38.9 months on average, more than before.
The presentation can be read and downloaded from the FA Wind website.
Author: Georg Eble
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