Energy transition - A guide in 5 steps

Author: Dr. Klaus Hassmann, Cluster Energietechnik This guide sets out targets in three steps at 5-year intervals. Federal Network Agency and the transmission system operators can thus draw a conclusion in short periods of time, which targets are not achieved and why. This means that corrective action can be taken immediately.  Here you will find a summary of the individual expansion corridors as well as information on the additional boundary conditions of the five scenarios. Before the official decision was made, a hearing was held with many companies from politics, research and industry. Some comments from this process are reproduced.

New scenario framework for expansion corridors

The network development plan was prepared by the Federal Network Agency in consultation with the four transmission system operators for a period from 2019 to 2030 and approved on June 15, 2018. Prior to this, more than 100 participant companies as well as some private individuals took the opportunity to submit their comments in two consultation rounds.  As part of the grid development plan, three scenario horizons  were developed for the target year  2025 and one scenario each for the target years 2030 and 2035. These specify the expansion of renewable energies and the reduction of conventional electricity generators. 

Table 1 shows the expansion targets for renewable energies and the reduction targets for conventional energy for the main electricity generators for the reference year 2017 and for the target years, in addition to other important framework conditions.

Table 1a: Renewable energy output in GW

Table 1b: Conventional Capacity in GW

Table 1c: Total

Table 1d: Net electricity consumption in TWh

Table 1e: Drivers of sector coupling in millions.

Table 1f: Flexibility options and storage in GW

According to the Federal Network Agency, the present, new scenario framework ("new") is to be used as the basis for energy industry development. A comparison with a predecessor, the scenario framework with the year 2013 as the reference year ("old") shows that with "new", the year 2030 with three scenarios is in focus, while with "old" with four scenarios it was the year 2025. Comparing the target values for 2035, "new" with 72.8 GW of conventional energy sources is below "old" with 77.5 GW. With regard to renewables, "new" with 222.9 GW has confidence in a significant increase compared  to "old" with 181 GW. Wind is expected to increase moderately, photovoltaics significantly, i.e. photovoltaics is at 97.4 GW for "new" compared to 59.9 for "old". There are good signals for the success of the increases in photovoltaics and wind in tenders with significant price reductions. However, it is not yet clear what will happen to the old plants that will soon fall out of the EEG subsidy.

Contradictory views

The information in this article was taken from a more than 200-page document of the Federal Network Agency entitled " Approval of the Scenario Framework 2019 - 2030" dated June 15, 2018. It contains the work commitments of the four network operators as well as, among other things, a detailed summary of the consultation rounds mentioned at the beginning on more than 50 pages. On many individual topics, these are very contradictory views - for experts and interested observers of the scene, a quasi-exhaustible source of technical-scientific correlations. In addition some examples:

The energy turnaround is abused by the transmission system operators to extend the net development to as high a measure as possible. The net development need is to be limited however on transmission net level to the absolutely necessary measure; it is demanded that the draft to the scenario framework is compiled in the future by the Federal Network Agency itself. In addition a remark of the author: Also consultation contributions are not always free from self-interests.

The supply is not exclusively with additional net development to secure. New power applications should be integrated in a grid-compatible way. This integration would be realized predominantly on the distribution network level and not that of the transmission network, therefore the coordinated planning of the distribution network should stand in the center of the future network development.

Higher development rates, with wind on like offshore as well as Photovoltaik want the one, others  only PV addition, since the surfaces for wind power plants would become scarce and the resistance in the population grows. Only by Repowering wind can increase.

By a reduction of the annual maximum load substantial costs could be avoided, by from regulatory side incentives would be created, in order to lift flexibility potentials. Power-to-X applications completely shut down, shift the charging power electromobility up to 70%,  heat pumps allow a load shift of six hours. In addition, the load shifting potential of industry increases significantly and is also available to reduce the annual peak load.

A number of 10 million electric vehicles corresponds to a share of about 20% of the total number of all cars in Germany. In Scenario C 2030, this figure is a good forecast. Also a portion of approx. 35% is conceivable as some consultation participants confirm.

The portion of heat pumps for heating in the annually approx. 100,000 new buildings amounts today to approx. 35%. Perspectively a percentage increase is to be expected, however the heat pumps in the building modernization play only a subordinate role due to their technical requirements. Thus, a lower development to 1.3 to 1.6 million in 2030 is more realistic.

Some participants consider the efficiency increases of scenarios A 2030 (1%) and B 2030 (2.5%) as realistic. Others, however, expect higher efficiency gains. In their view, regional practical examples show that savings of at least 10% are possible through minor investments, optimization of control technology, small behavioral changes and regular energy management. They recommend 5% for Scenarios B 2030 and 7.5% for C 2030.

According to some participants, the assumptions on additional electricity consumption in the course of sector coupling were too low. For 2030, a net electricity consumption of at least 600 TWh is considered more likely.

Transmission system operators put forward four approaches for discussion to meet the national CO₂ targets mentioned in the tables: 

• Method 1: Adjusting the power plant fleet by removing emission-intensive power plants. 
• Method 2: Scarcity of CO₂ certificates and thereby artificially increase the national CO₂ price (indirect specification of a CO₂ cap). 
• Method 3: Modeling of retrofits, conversion and modernization of power plants, e.g. CO₂ capture (CCS technologies) or fuel switching. 
• Method 4: Emission budgets for individual power plants (operating hours target, deployment restrictions). Many participants judge these methods to be realistic, while others reject some or even all of them.

Transmission system operators assume that security of supply depends on electricity imports in the target years. Participants disagree, arguing that assuming sufficient flexibility options such as storage and power-to-gas, Germany should be able to manage without imports despite volatile RE feed-in.