Nicolai, what has changed fundamentally as a result of Corona?
Nicolai Harnisch: We have observed four changes. First, the volume of mobility has decreased by up to 60 percent on some days compared to the previous year, especially in the spring of 2020. This is particularly due to lockdowns - such as school closures, contact and curfew restrictions. But home office and reduced hours have also played their part.
Second, if we look at the distribution of traffic among the various modes of transportation, the modes of transportation most affected by this reduction are those in which social distancing is more difficult to follow and, consequently, where there is a fear of a higher risk of infection. This concerns, among others, shared mobility services and, to a particular extent, public transport.
Thirdly, bicycles have consequently experienced a real boom. After all, the bicycle offers the advantage of low risk of infection and adds the exercise we lack in lockdown and home offices.
Fourth: At the same time, the private car has reemerged as the number one mode of transportation for reasons of hygiene and flexibility - a rather negative development for the climate and our cities.
So public transport can be called the big loser in the pandemic?
Nicolai Harnisch: Yes, I can confirm that so. Basically, public transport transports a large number of people in a very confined space. This makes many commuters feel uncomfortable under the given conditions, especially at rush hour. In addition, public transport is losing subscribers due to short-time working, home offices and restricted school services. Equally painful is the loss of private travelers due to travel restrictions and border closures.
How can public transport regain trust?
Nicolai Harnisch: The most important thing is compliance with hygiene measures: Ensuring that masks are mandatory, regularly disinfecting surfaces and ventilating whenever possible - at best at every station. Equally important is maintaining the pace of travel despite reduced passenger numbers, so that the volume of passengers is equalized as best as possible. Digital tools could be helpful here, allowing passengers to call up the current load or load forecasts for specific times, for example. In some areas, an expansion of services is also necessary. Cooperation with sharing providers, for example, would be conceivable, especially at times of day when public transport services are reduced. Another important topic is "flexible ticketing/pricing". This is particularly interesting with regard to the subscription customers already mentioned. Many of them may already be calculating: "Is the annual subscription still worth it if I am currently mainly in my home office? If I might only drive to the office once or twice a week in the future?" Straightforward, flexible and demand-oriented ticketing or pricing can offer solutions here.
Mara, you have developed a roadmap that outlines a possible future of society and mobility systems. What can our readers imagine from this?
Dr. Mara Cole: We have been working with our colleagues from the Consulting field Technology and Innovation Management chose the topic "Urban Mobility Post Corona in 2030", because if roadmap is always important to define a concrete time horizon. After identifying the topics, we held several workshops with experts to collect many different elements that will influence the mobility of the future. We finally documented our findings in a structured way in the form of a roadmap. This roadmap now provides companies with a strategic planning tool that they can use to test their own products and services for future-proofing.
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