Trend Radar Energy 2023

01.12.2023

The Energy and Construction Innovation Network of Bayern Innovativ GmbH publishes the Energy Trend Radar 2023 to shed light on a rapidly changing trend and technology landscape. The identified trends were evaluated by experts from the energy industry and presented in an interactive trend radar, thus enabling industry players to relate the results to their own business activities and draw conclusions for their own strategic direction.

1. objective

The aim is to strategically process trend-based influences on the energy sector and to analyze discrepancies and consistencies between different advisory groups. Based on this, discussion points for future topics and focal points in the energy sector are to be identified and individual conclusions drawn with the aim of networking and supporting companies in Bavaria even better.

2. Methodology

The basis of the trend research is the processing of internal sources initialized in 2021 as well as additions through desk research. The information collected was structured, condensed and validated through expert interviews. In 2023, the identified trends were validated again by the project team and supplemented by two new trends, making a total of 63 trends.

The 63 identified trends were evaluated by Bavarian energy experts in the period from (02.05.23 - 24.05.23) using the following three criteria:

Influence
"How strong do you estimate the influence of this trend on the energy industry?"
Priority
"What priority does this trend have for your company/institution?"
Innovation driver
"When do you estimate the trend will be a strong innovation driver in the energy industry?"

A total of 38 experts took part in the survey, with the average trend ratings per criterion being based on 33 expert assessments. The survey results were rounded and are based on calculations of mean values, whereby the respective gradations were included in the evaluation with equal weighting. The results of the survey were converted into a trend radar with the help of the Digital Innovation Platform (DIP) of Bayern Innovativ GmbH, which is available to you below as an interactive innovation tool.

The interactive Trend Radar Energy 2023 shows you the evaluations of the overall perspective - i.e. the average ratings of all survey participants. You can work interactively with the tool, for example by jumping to specific trend segments or displaying trend descriptions and background information on individual trends (by clicking on the trends).

3. trends

The Energy 2023 Trend Radar comprises 63 trends. According to STEEP, the identified trends were divided into

sociocultural,
technological,
economic,
ecological (ecologic)
political trends

. They are made up of industry-specific trends and those that can have an impact on the industry from outside.

The categorization should not be seen as a clear-cut distinction. Trends are categorized according to their origin and/or their current presence.

The trend descriptions of the 63 trends can be found in the free downloadable technical article.

Klicken Sie auf das Bild, um die Großansicht zu öffnen.

4. selected core results

The following are some core results from the evaluation of the overall perspective :

INFLUENCE : The trends of reducing emissions and climate neutrality, accelerating the energy transition, diversification of the energy mix and energy suppliers and system integration of renewable energies were assessed as having a very high impact on the energy sector.

PRIORITY : The trends augmented reality, nuclear fusion, liquefied natural gas and virtual reality were rated as having a low priority. What is striking here is that most of these trends were also rated as having only a low to medium impact on the industry. No trend was rated as having a very high priority.

INNOVATION DRIVERS : The trends of data protection, liquefied natural gas, social acceptance of the energy transition, global protest movements, rebound effects and social inequality were rated as innovation drivers within the next three years. It should be noted that around half of the participants do not classify the two trends of liquefied natural gas and nuclear fusion as drivers of innovation either currently or in the future. The other half of the respondents rate the two trends as drivers of innovation at a much later stage, meaning that on average they will be driving innovation within the next three years or the next three to six years. Artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, smart cities and hydrogen production and infrastructure were named as trends that are more likely to have an impact as innovation drivers in the longer term - i.e. in the next six to ten years. There is no trend that was not rated as an innovation driver at all. Likewise, no trend was assessed as an innovation driver only in the next ten years and beyond.

Have we piqued your interest? Read more about the Trend Radar Energy 2023 in our detailed specialist article "Trend Insights - Illuminating the future of the energy sector with the Trend Radar Energy".

You can download the free report here:

5. trend dynamics

The following trend dynamics show the most striking changes in the assessments of the overall perspective between the two online surveys in 2021 and 2023.

The INFLUENCE of the two trends big data analytics and digital literacy was assessed as medium in the current survey. These trends therefore recorded the greatest reduction in the influence rating. In contrast, the influence of the trends rebound effects and role change of transmission and distribution system operators were rated as high and therefore increased the most in this criterion of all the trends considered.

In 2021, the trends electromobility and charging infrastructure as well as digital twin were rated as having a high PRIORITY for their own company or organization. In the new 2023 survey, the trends were only given a medium priority. In contrast, the trends of change in energy market design, rebound effects, mindset resilience and energy, climate, nature and species protection in harmony have increased in priority rating.

The two trends of liquefied natural gas and blockchain were now rated earlier as INNOVATION DRIVERS . This is consistent with the fact that the two surveys were conducted around a year and a half apart. This means that liquefied natural gas is seen as an innovation driver within the next three years, with blockchain continuing to be rated as an innovation driver in the next three to six years. In comparison, the assessment of the innovation-driving effect for the trends predictive analytics and predictive maintenance, system integration of renewable energies and augmented reality has shifted back in time. These three trends are estimated to be drivers of innovation in the next three to six years.

6. Conclusion

The Energy Trend Radar is an innovation management tool for the Bavarian energy sector from the field of trend scouting. The trend assessments are based on a qualitative expert survey and are not a representative survey of the industry's opinion, but they do enable the industry players to draw their own conclusions with regard to their individual business activities and to develop sustainable strategies.

In the Energy and Construction Innovation Network of Bayern Innovativ GmbH, the Energy Trend Radar is used as a valuable tool for aligning thematic network work. The processing of the results and the analysis of trend dynamics enable the selection of targeted network activities to strengthen the innovative power of the Bavarian energy landscape. The following are examples of the innovation network's own derivations:

The acceleration of the energy transition has a major impact on the energy sector according to both the scientific and business communities. The scientific perspective rates the trend as a high priority in their own institution, while participants from the business sector even prioritize it as very high. The reduction of regulatory hurdles, knowledge transfer and networking between business, science and politics are important building blocks for accelerating the energy transition - areas of activity in which the Energy and Construction Innovation Network is already active on a daily basis.
Energy storage and management are rated as high to very high both in terms of their impact on the energy landscape and the priority of the experts involved. For a sustainable and efficient design of the future energy landscape with innovative battery technologies, the Energy and Construction Innovation Network of Bayern Innovativ GmbH is driving forward the initiation of a Bavarian battery network.
Cybersecurity is given a very high priority in the economic perspective. Suitable network activities are needed to provide possible assistance with regard to options and points of contact for system security. The Energy and Construction Innovation Network is planning a webinar on the topic of cybersecurity in the energy sector for 2024 in order to bring small and medium-sized companies closer to the topic and provide initial impetus.
The rebound effects trend has achieved a significant increase in the overall impact assessment. The aim here is to promote knowledge transfer and initiate cooperation through networking for more energy efficiency measures and at the same time address causes and solutions to avoid rebound effects. The increased activity of the Energy and Construction Innovation Network in the formation of energy efficiency networks as part of the Bavarian Energy Efficiency Network Initiative (BEEN-i) is just one example of this (Bayern Innovativ GmbH, n. d. e.).