Oct. 18, 2023
Source: Energy & Management Powernews
Global climate targets can only be met through a massive expansion of power grids, according to a report by the International Energy Agency.
The importance of power grids in the energy industry will increase in the future as electricity takes up a larger share of energy consumption, according to the report, which the International Energy Agency (IEA) released Oct. 17 in Paris. To meet all national climate targets, electricity consumption would have to grow 20 percent faster in the future than in the current decade.
To achieve this, some 80 million kilometers of transmission lines would have to be newly built or modernized by 2040, equivalent to doubling existing line capacity. The IEA is calling on politicians and companies to invest more in the expansion of grids, otherwise climate targets and security of supply are at risk.
Investment in grids is not keeping pace with the expansion of power generation from wind and solar, with the use of heat pumps and electric vehicles, the report continues. In developing countries in particular, investment in grid infrastructure has declined despite growing demand for electricity,
More and more bottlenecks due to grid networks
Without an expansion and improvement of grid infrastructure, security of supply will be undermined and the 1.5-degree target will fall out of reach. In addition to doubling investment to $600 billion a year (the equivalent of about €569 billion), new regulation is needed, he said. The pipeline networks of the future would have to be operated and managed differently than they are today. The IEA warns that the power grids are increasingly becoming a bottleneck in the energy transition. This also affects industrialized countries such as Germany. In this country, the cost of congestion management rose from 5.69 to 8.10 euros/MWh in the last four years.
Worldwide, there are wind and solar projects with a capacity of 1.5 million MW in an advanced planning stage that would be connected to the grid in the next few years. That would be about five times the wind and solar capacity that came online last year, he said. "The progress in clean energy development that we're seeing in many countries is a cause for optimism. But they could easily be damaged if governments and companies don't get together and ensure that power grids are ready for the emerging energy economy," IEA Director Fatih Birol was quoted as saying.
Electricity consumption is growing rapidly, he said, and so is grid usage. At the same time, new technologies would have to be integrated both on the energy supply side (wind, solar, storage) and on the demand side (heating, mobility, storage). This, they say, is only possible by digitizing the distribution grids, making demand more flexible, and adding significantly more storage capacity.
In a scenario, the energy experts in Paris have examined what the consequences would be if the expansion of the grids and the modernization of regulation continue to lag behind demand. They conclude that nearly 60 billion more tons of CO2 would be emitted between 2030 and 2050 because the expansion of renewables would progress more slowly and correspondingly more electricity would be generated from fossil fuels.
IEA recommendations
A targeted expansion of grids would have to increase the capacity of interconnectors within and between individual countries and regions in particular. This could better integrate renewables and make the overall system more resilient. To achieve this, cooperation between countries must be intensified, he said. Politicians should primarily promote large-scale projects to expand transmission grids, and grid operators should focus their attention particularly on digitizing grids and making them more flexible.
Due to long investment cycles, the IEA believes there is an urgent need for action. While new generation plants are often completed in less than five years, it takes up to 15 years to plan and build grid infrastructure projects,
Modernizing transmission grids in developing countries is an important task for the international community, Birol says. They need not only the necessary financing, but also access to clean technologies.
The report "Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions Enhancing the foundations of resilient, sustainable and affordable power systems" is available for download on the IEA website.
Author: Tom Weingärtner
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