06.03.2024
Source: Energy & Management Powernews
The Building Energy Act provides for higher proportions of renewable energy sources in German heating systems. Dena has now investigated what this means for the demand for biomethane.
Germany's additional demand for biomethane could total up to 44.6 billion kWh by 2040. This is the conclusion of a brief analysis by the German Energy Agency (Dena) entitled "How will biomethane demand develop on the basis of the Building Energy Act?"
The analysis states that biomethane has so far only played a downstream role in the heat supply. In 2023, around 10.4 billion kWh of biomethane will be produced across Germany, the majority of which will be converted into district and local heating and electricity in combined heat and power plants. The share of biomethane in green heat generation in Germany across all sectors was only around 2 percent in 2022.
This could change significantly with the implementation of the provisions of the Building Energy Act (GEG), which came into force on January 1, 2024. It stipulates that heating systems in buildings must generate at least 65% of heat from renewable energy sources or unavoidable waste heat in future.
No hydrogen in the distribution grids before 2035
In their analysis of potential, the Dena experts assume that no significant amount of hydrogen will be available to end customers in the heating sector in the gas distribution grids before 2035. Based on the assumptions of the "T45-PtG / PtL6" long-term scenario, the experts expect the 14.3 million gas heating systems (as of 2022) to be reduced in number to 9.1 million by 2045.
Of these 9.1 million gas heating systems, around 2 million would meet the 65% renewable share by being installed as a hybrid solution with heat pumps. Based on the average value of the installation of new gas heating systems in existing buildings over the last ten years (563,067 gas heating systems) and the targeted reduction in gas heating systems by 2045, this would result in an average of 249,023 new gas heating systems being installed each year over the years under consideration. In simplified terms, the analysts calculate an average gas consumption of 16,000 kWh for these - a value that should decrease over the years with increasing energy efficiency measures, as the experts themselves note.
In three scenarios, the researchers then assume different percentages of gas heating systems in existing buildings that will be replaced by gas heating systems in the future. They come to the conclusion that the demand for biomethane in existing buildings
- to 2.1 to 7.3 billion kWh by 2029
- to 7.9 to 26.2 billion kWh by 2035 and
- will ultimately increase to between 13.1 and 43.6 billion kWh by 2040.
In new building construction, however, gaseous energy sources will only play a role in multi-family homes in future, and even then only a minor one, according to the analysis. The demand for biomethane in heating networks cannot be adequately estimated. In general, the calculations are subject to many uncertainties, the analysts write. They are only intended to provide a rough idea of the development.
Biomethane potential varies depending on origin
However, the results clearly show that demand will increase significantly - up to four times the current demand, depending on the scenario. The potential is also difficult to estimate and differs significantly depending on the study, meaning that the additional biomethane potential from waste and residual materials can be expected to range from 40 to 71 billion kWh.
In contrast, no additional potential can be expected from cultivated biomass (e.g. energy maize). However, in view of the planned increase in European production to around 370 billion kWh of biomethane by 2030, imports could play a major role.
In any case, the study concludes that a significant expansion of biomethane production capacities is necessary to cover the demand for biomethane, which must be implemented promptly. In order to be able to cover demand in the long term, it goes on to say that expansion rates of up to 50 biomethane plants per year, as in the years 2011 to 2014, are necessary.
The full analysis "How is biomethane demand developing on the basis of the Building Energy Act? Regulatory requirements and potential development of biomethane demand by 2040" is available on the Dena website.
Author: Katia Meyer-Tien
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