SHK trade sees heat pump market shrinking

April 24, 2024

Source: Energy & Management Powernews

The Central Association of the Plumbing and Heating Trade is expecting a decline in heat pump installations of up to 50 percent this year

Rattling is part of the trade, and trade associations sometimes also rattle their teeth. The German Central Association for Sanitary, Heating and Air Conditioning (ZVSHK) has now published economic data for the sector for 2023 and issued a pessimistic forecast for the heating turnaround in boiler rooms: "Even after the first few weeks of the year, it is clear that the politically induced uncertainty among customers regarding the modernization of heating systems is still slowing down the willingness to invest," said Helmut Bramann, Managing Director of the trade organization, at the presentation of the figures.

Bramann illustrated the uncertainty with reference to expectations for the heat pump business. "If we're lucky, we might manage between 180,000 and 200,000 devices," he told the German Press Agency about the number of new installations this year. Compared to 2023, that would be a drop of up to 50 percent. According to the ZVSHK, around 356,000 heat pumps were "newly launched on the market by manufacturers" last year, which was 120,000 more than in 2022. Bramann called the German government's target of 500,000 new installations per year "illusory, even next year".

The association's head put the total number of heat generators installed in 2023 at more than 1.2 million. The number of bathrooms newly built or renovated by the trade was 1 million, around 200,000 below the long-term average.

Fewer companies, more employees

According to the association's estimates, annual turnover in the HVAC trade rose by 4.2 billion to 61.7 billion euros. This also includes the turnover of plumbers, tank and apparatus builders and stove and air heating builders. In comparison: ten years ago, the trade generated 38.9 billion euros according to the ZVSHK.

The number of businesses fell by 800 to 48,100 in 2023. The number of employees grew by 2,000 to 396,000. The skilled trades also recorded an increase in newly concluded training contracts. In the largest group, plant mechanics, the number increased from 14,301 to 15,132.

As far as business prospects are concerned, the association believes the federal government has a duty: politicians are called upon to "win back trust with a targeted campaign and convince people with arguments that now is the time to replace inefficient and outdated heating technology and not wait and see", said the ZVSHK Managing Director.

Author: Manfred Fischer