Not enough green hydrogen by 2050

08/25/2023

Source: Energy & Management Powernews

According to a recent study by the Erfurt University of Applied Sciences, hydrogen from renewable sources alone cannot meet German demand until 2050. In addition, such from natural gas would be necessary.

The study "Development of a supply curve to meet the German hydrogen demand until 2050" was published on August 14 by the University of Applied Sciences Erfurt. Under the scientific direction of energy economist Prof. Konstantin Lenz, students of building and energy technology worked on a forecast of production and consumption of hydrogen for German demand.

The future German energy system will be characterized by significantly increasing electricity consumption due to electrification and sector coupling. The demand coverage simulated in the study by the Erfurt University of Applied Sciences is based on economic optimization with sensible consideration of the currently applicable political goals. According to the results, "green" hydrogen from renewably produced electricity alone could not cover Germany's hydrogen demand by 2050 at any point in time.

Various hydrogen sources forecast

A mainstay of hydrogen production will be the bridge technology of blue hydrogen from natural gas, especially at the beginning, the authors said. Alternatively, the resulting climate gas CO2 could be captured and injected, which is referred to as "turquoise" hydrogen. Its contribution, however, is difficult to predict, they said. This technology is therefore likely to play only a minor role in the ramp-up of the German hydrogen economy, the study said.

"Pink" hydrogen from nuclear power is an option for countries with a high share of nuclear power in the electricity mix, such as France and Sweden. According to the EU's Delegated Act, it also counts as renewable hydrogen because no climate gases are released during production, he said. Germany will be heavily dependent on hydrogen imports from outside Europe in the future, he said. The largest share of imports is expected to be covered by "green" ammonia, which would require driving forward European and German import terminals and distribution networks.

The results of the study represent only one scenario. The actual occurrence of the forecast depends on various developments and factors, the authors qualify. In particular, political decisions could significantly steer developments. The study incorporated the findings of various bachelor's and master's theses, the UAS Erfurt said.

Author: Susanne Harmsen