No horror forecasts for the winter

05/23/2023

Source: Energy & Management Powernews

In the run-up to the E-world trade fair, the head of the Federal Network Agency expects well-filled gas storage facilities in the fall. Dissatisfied, however, he is with the progress of the network expansion.

25 degrees Celsius showed the thermometer at lunchtime in Essen on the eve of this year's trade fair "E-world energy & water". At these early summer temperatures to prepare a professional audience for the next winter, this challenge had to face Klaus Müller at the "Leadership Meeting Energy". What the President of the Federal Network Agency succeeded with his usual charming words, especially since he also announced no "horror forecasts": "The gas supply is currently stable, the gas storage facilities are currently filled to 71.8 percent."

A value that, according to him, is about twice as high compared to the same period last year. By the start of the gas year in the fall, Müller expects well-filled storage facilities, and "at market-based prices." The fact that the past winter cost German taxpayers a lot of money for alternative gas imports after supplies from Russia stopped was hinted at by Müller with a rather casual formulation: "We got through the past winter well because we bought a lot of gas volumes that were dear to us."

So that also in the coming winter the heaters do not have to be switched off, sets Mueller on the one hand further on a diversification of the sources of supply. In Europe, according to his forecast, most volumes will come from Norway, Belgium and the Netherlands. For the president of the German Federal Network Agency, it is also a foregone conclusion that LNG gas will take on an increasingly important role in security of supply.

Müller favors LNG terminal at Mukran port

There is still plenty of room for improvement when it comes to LNG volumes: "LNG currently has a 7 percent share of imports," Müller said. In addition to the existing LNG terminals in Wilhelmshaven, Brunsbüttel and Lubmin, Müller was clearly in favor of the new construction at the port of Mukran on the island of Rügen: "Even if this project on the island is rejected by local politicians and the tourism industry, we need this additional landing station." In view of the opposition on the island to the new LNG terminal, which has been ongoing for weeks, Müller appealed for political support from southern Germany: "For a secure gas supply in these regions, we absolutely need the terminal in Mukran."

Müller avoided getting into the discussion in Essen about how many LNG terminals are needed in Germany for future gas supply. There are likely to be quite a few, as the German Federal Network Agency estimates that LNG will cover about 60 percent of gas imports in 2026.

The gas sector will not remain the only construction site for Müller in the coming years. The head of the network agency still considers the expansion of transmission networks to be unsatisfactory. Lines amounting to 6,000 kilometers are still waiting for approval, and another 4,000 kilometers, which are considered essential, are in the "preparation stage." But this does not mean that the transmission network of the future is finished. Where the journey is headed was indicated by the four transmission system operators in March. Among other things, the quartet considers five more HVDC lines or three additional north-south connections to be necessary. In order to connect the many planned offshore wind farms in the North Sea and Baltic Sea, according to the considerations of the network operators, about 35 new converter stations are needed, some of which are located far from the coasts.

"With the abundance of these projects, I was really surprised in the spring that the big public outcry failed to materialize," Müller admitted. It is foreseeable that German citizens will have to prepare for further construction sites in many a region: By 2032, according to Klaus Müller's announcement, there should be a core network for the transport of hydrogen: "This is necessary for the hydrogen ramp-up, the existing gas networks are not sufficient for this."

Author: Ralf Köpke