Aurora Energy Research publishes study on the cost of imported hydrogen

01/25/2023

Source: Energy & Management Powernews

Green hydrogen at competitive prices could supply Spain, Morocco and Australia to Germany in 2030, states Aurora Energy Research and gives concrete figures.

Model calculations, which Aurora Energy Research has developed with the help of a case study for Germany, show that imports of green hydrogen from certain countries could compete with hydrogen from domestic production in terms of price in 2030.

Hanns Koenig, Managing Director Central Europe at Aurora Energy Research, names Australia, Chile, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as well as Spain, for example, as promising suppliers of green hydrogen. "These countries have a high potential for using renewable energy sources and could generate the green power for hydrogen production at very low cost," Koenig said. Accordingly, he said, their interest in hydrogen export projects is high.

On the numbers: At 3.10 euros, the production costs per kilogram of green hydrogen are according to the calculations of Aurora in 2030 in Australia, Chile and Spain. Morocco will be able to produce the kilogram of regeneratively produced hydrogen for 3.20 euros, the UAE for 3.60 euros. By comparison, the energy market analysts have determined production costs of between 3.90 and 5.00 euros per kilogram for green hydrogen produced in Germany.

Despite the additional costs for transport and, if necessary, conversion, green hydrogen from Spain, Morocco, Australia and Chile would be competitive in Germany, according to another Aurora result (see graphic). The cheapest hydrogen would be delivered by pipeline, which in principle would be possible from Spain and Morocco. Aurora puts the price of Spanish hydrogen at 3.46 euros per kilogram in 2030, which would be significantly lower than the price of green hydrogen from domestic German production.

"Against this background, the extension of the planned 'H2Med' pipeline between Barcelona and Marseille to Germany, which has just been decided, is an important step, if it can be realized by 2030 as planned," says Koenig. For background: on January 22, it had become known in the Franco-German declaration adopted in Paris on the 60th anniversary of the Elysee Treaty that France and Germany want to extend the planned hydrogen pipeline H2Med between Barcelona and Marseille to Germany.

Koenig is already thinking a step further: "Ideally, Morocco would also be connected to a European hydrogen pipeline network as soon as possible. Then the hydrogen delivered from there, at 3.72 euros per kilo, would be significantly cheaper than the production costs in Germany."

Ship transports 20 percent more expensive

Until the pipelines are completed, ship transport to Germany remains as an option, but is basically at least 20 percent more expensive, as Aurora Energy Research has calculated. Thus, liquefied hydrogen from Spain would come to 4.35 euros and from Morocco to 4.58 euros per kilogram. If transported using liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHC) or in the combined form of ammonia, it would be around 4.57 euros per kilogram from Spain and around 4.70 euros from Morocco, including the cost of conversion back into gaseous hydrogen in Germany.

For imports from the countries of Australia and Chile, only ship transport is generally an option. According to Aurora, they only achieve their competitiveness if the hydrogen is transported as ammonia - then the costs would be 4.84 and 4.86 euros per kilogram, respectively. According to the market analysts, all these values are within the range of German production costs. So it would depend on the specific individual case whether they are competitive.

For hydrogen from the UAE, the cheapest transport would also be in the form of ammonia; but at 5.36 euros per kilogram, this would not be competitive compared to domestic production.

For more information, visit the Aurora Energy Research website.

Author: Davina Spohn