Source: Energy & Management Powernews, October 28 2022
States around the world are looking to increase investment towards clean energy generation. This could accelerate the energy transition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) states.
In the midst of the "first truly global energy crisis," the International Energy Agency (IEA) sees countries worldwide. According to its currently published "World Energy Outlook 2022," Russia's "unprovoked invasion" of Ukraine earlier this year has had far-reaching consequences on the global energy system. Supply and demand patterns have been thrown into disarray and long-standing trade relations have been thrown into turmoil, writes IEA Director Fatih Birol in his foreword.
Based on the latest energy data and market developments, the energy agency nevertheless arrives at an optimistic assessment in its annual report: according to one of the report's findings, many countries see the energy crisis as an opportunity to drive forward their own structural transformation. If the plans already expressed were realized, this would mean an increase in global investment in clean energies by 50 percentage points by 2030.
In contrast, global demand for fossil fuels could soon stagnate for the first time, according to the IEA. In the global energy mix, it assumes a declining share of fossil fuel from 80% to 60% by 2050. Under current political conditions, the energy agency expects coal use to decline. The same applies to demand for oil from the mid-2030s, it says, as global sales of electric vehicles increase. For natural gas demand, it predicts stagnation by the end of the decade.
"Historic and definitive turning point" expected
Birol anticipates a near-term shift in energy markets and policies that will endure, saying, "The responses of governments around the world hold the promise of a historic and definitive turning point toward a cleaner, affordable and secure energy system."
Despite a declining share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix, the IEA forecasts global warming of 2.5 degrees by 2100, a far cry from the 1.5-degree target that is supposed to help prevent serious consequences of climate change. According to Fatih Birol, global warming could be limited to 1.7 degrees by 2100 if all countries put their climate pledges into practice.
The 524-page "World Energy Outlook 2022" is available for download on the IEA's website.
Author: Davina Spohn
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