IEA sees 1.5-degree target as still achievable

09/27/2023

Source: Energy & Management Powernews

According to the updated report of the World Energy Agency (IEA), limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees has become more difficult, but is still achievable with efforts.

The update of the Net Zero Roadmap of the UN's World Energy Agency (IEA) shows that achieving climate change targets is still possible. But greater ambition worldwide and stronger implementation of targets, supported by international cooperation, are important for this to happen, it said. Participants at the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference had pledged to bring greenhouse gas emissions from the global energy sector to net zero and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This is still possible, according to the IEA, due to record growth in key clean energy technologies.

But for that to happen, momentum in many areas must increase rapidly, the report cautions at the same time. The new roadmap sets out a global pathway to keep the 1.5-degree target within reach and is a comprehensive update of the original report, which was published in 2021. The 2023 update takes into account significant changes in the energy landscape over the past two years, including the post-pandemic economic recovery and the extraordinary growth of some clean energy technologies. Critically, it also notes increased investment in fossil fuels and persistently high emissions.

Renewable energy as key

The record growth in solar power capacity and electric car sales since 2021 is consistent with the path to net-zero global emissions by mid-century, he said, as are industry plans to introduce new production capacity for them. These two technologies alone could deliver one-third of the needed emissions reductions between now and 2030, the IEA said.

Renewable energy innovations have also led to more options and lowered technology costs, it said. In the IEA's original 2021 roadmap, technologies not yet on the market delivered nearly half of the emissions reductions needed for net zero in 2050. In this year's update, that number has now dropped to about 35 percent.

Still, bolder action is needed this decade, he said. In this year's updated net-zero pathway, global renewable energy capacity triples by 2030, while the annual rate of increase in energy efficiency doubles, sales of electric vehicles and heat pumps soar, and methane emissions from the power sector fall by 75 percent. These strategies, based on proven and often low-cost emissions-cutting technologies, together deliver more than 80 percent of the reductions needed by the end of the decade.

Stop fossil fuel investment

"The good news is that we know what to do - and how to do it," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. Strong international cooperation, however, is critical to success, he said. "Given the scale of the challenge ahead, governments must separate climate from geopolitics," Birol appealed at the same time. Thus, he said, a significant increase in investment is needed, especially in emerging and developing countries. In the IEA's new zero path, global spending on clean energy increases from $1.8 trillion in 2023 to $4.5 trillion annually by the early 2030s.

In the updated net-zero scenario, a huge policy-driven expansion of clean energy capacity results in fossil fuel demand falling 25 percent by 2030 and emissions falling 35 percent from their all-time high in 2022. By 2050, demand for fossil fuels will drop by 80 percent, he said. As a result, no new upstream oil and gas projects with long lead times will be needed, the IEA writes.

"Removing carbon from the atmosphere is very costly," Birol reminded. It is much more cost-effective to avoid emissions, he said. The COP28 climate summit in Dubai is an important opportunity to commit to more ambitious targets, he urged. Faster implementation of the targets in the remaining years of this crucial decade is also needed, he said. Faster climate change in industrialized countries could give emerging and developing countries more time to change, he said. According to United Nations climate researchers, the Earth is currently heading for more than 2.5 degrees of warming.

The IEA Report 2023 is available online in English.

Author: Susanne Harmsen