Federal Network Agency publishes gas scenario paper

Source: Energy & Management Powernews, 24 . October 2022

Germany could well get through the winter of 2022/23 with natural gas, writes the Federal Network Agency. According to their scenarios, further savings and not too much cold are important.

"We are not yet at the goal, but already gone a decent piece," sums up the report of the Federal Network Agency on October 20 on the gas supply situation for the winter of 2022/23. The government efforts would have paid off.

Thanks to government regulation, the storage facilities are very good and faster than expected filled to over 95%. In addition, gas deliveries from Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium could be increased. From France comes for the first time gas to Germany in return for supplied electricity because of the failure of French nuclear power plants.

Also the expansion of the LNG terminal, the transfer points for liquefied natural gas by ship, is progressing, the authority states. Nevertheless, natural gas must continue to be used sparingly "so that we can get through the entire winter and have a good starting point for the next one," the agency appeals.

"In the coming months, however, it can be assumed that both imports will fall and exports will rise," according to the forecast. In particular, gas imports via Belgium and via the Netherlands are likely to decrease because the heating season is starting there as well. At the same time, demand in (southern) Eastern Europe will increase, which could result in additional gas exports from Germany,

Of four scenarios, only one with gas shortage in February 2023

In four scenarios, the authority assumes a 20% reduction in consumption and a start of gas storage at the end of October 2022. In the best case, only 19 GW of gas would have to be exported in the coming months, and in the worst case, 46 GW of gas, depending on weather conditions. In the best case scenario with mild temperatures, gas withdrawal could continue until early or mid-March 2023, leaving a storage level of 54%. A gas shortage situation would not threaten thereby.

In a colder winter, withdrawal would continue until mid-April, leaving the storage facilities nearly empty. This would result in consequential problems for the winter of 2023/2024.

Only in the event of a severe cold spell in February 2023 does the agency fear a gas shortage from the end of February, because the storage facilities would then be nearly empty.

"If we in Germany continue to meet our savings target of at least 20%, three LNG terminals feed in by the beginning of the year at the latest, and the expected winter-related decline in imports and the increase in exports, which are currently particularly low, is rather moderate, then we will get through the winter without a national gas shortage situation," it concludes.

The Gas Scenarios of the Federal Network Agency is available for download as a PDF.

Author: Susanne Harmsen