June 16, 2023
Source: Energy & Management Powernews
Climate scientists say the EU must continue to make significant efforts to reduce its greenhouse gases beyond 2030.
The European Scientific Board on Climate Change, which the EU established as part of its climate policy, has presented its latest report. It states that the EU may still emit a maximum of 11 to 14 gigatons of CO2 in the period from 2030 to 2050 if the goal agreed in the Paris Agreement of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees is to be achieved. CO2 emissions would then have to be reduced by 90 to 95 percent (compared to 1990) by 2040, said Ottmar Edenhofer, chairman of the climate commission, at the presentation of the report.
A reduction in emissions on this scale would be achievable without the identified environmental risks becoming too great, he said. Such risks are primarily associated with the industrial deployment of new technologies such as the use of renewable energies, the climate commission's report says. To achieve this, the right political decisions would have to be made and sustainable innovations implemented.
The climate commission examined around 1,000 different scenarios and identified those that were compatible with the 1.5-degree target, it said. No feasible scenario would lead to a reduction in emissions that would be compatible with the principles of fair burden. The Climate Commission therefore recommends reducing the EU's own emissions as much as possible and cooperating with international partners to close the remaining gap.
The reduction target of 55 percent by 2030 adopted by the EU represents a first stage on the road to climate neutrality, it said. However, in order to take on a "fair share" of the necessary efforts, the EU states would have to take on an additional contribution to reducing greenhouse gases outside Europe. For European societies, he said, that means first and foremost the electrification of energy consumption and the extensive use of wind and solar power and green hydrogen to replace fossil fuels.
Combined with efficiency gains and the use of gas-fired power plants with CO2 capture, he said, a near-complete decarbonization of the energy industry could be achieved by 2040. The EU could thus minimize the need to store CO2 from the atmosphere, and with it the associated risks.
Storing CO2 from the atmosphere is essential
But the EU's climate neutrality target makes storing CO2 from the atmosphere on a larger scale essential. "Reducing emissions is certainly a priority," Edenhofer said, "But sustainable removal of CO2 by agriculture and forestry or by new technologies must also take place on a larger scale. In doing so, we need to keep a close eye on the risks."
The Climate Commission's report also highlights the many other benefits of moving away from fossil fuels. In addition to independence from fossil fuel suppliers and the associated security of supply, the report cites reduced health risks from higher air quality, improved water quality and the environment. However, these benefits would only be achieved if proper planning and decisions are made at the European, national and local levels.
The report "Scientific advice for the determination of an EU-wide 2040 climate target and a greenhouse gas budget for 2030-2050" is available for download online.
Author: Tom Weingärtner
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