11/03/2023
Source: Energie & Management Powernews
According to a forecast by the Working Group on Energy Balances, energy consumption in Germany this year will fall to a record low since 1990, mainly due to the shrinking economic output.
The Working Group on Energy Balances published its forecast for German consumption on November 2. According to this, energy demand will fall by 8 percent compared to the previous year. Measured against 1990, the year of German reunification, it is expected to fall by as much as 28 percent. In 2023, energy consumption will therefore only amount to around 3,000 billion kWh. According to the Federal Network Agency, 484 billion kWh of electricity and 847 billion kWh of natural gas were consumed in Germany in 2022.
Unfortunately, this was not caused by greater efficiency, but by the decline in economic output "in the order of 0.5 percent", according to AG Energiebilanzen. Energy-intensive industries in particular recorded declines in production, which had a noticeable impact on energy consumption. According to the AG's calculations, around a fifth of the total percentage reduction in consumption is likely to be attributable to the relatively warm weather.
A third effect that reduces consumption is due to the energy price level. Import prices for the most important imported energies have fallen significantly over the course of the year. "Nevertheless, prices are still well above the 2021 level," according to the analysis. The AG assumes that the persistently high prices have led to savings as well as a reduction in energy-intensive production.
In contrast, demographic developments are having a consumption-increasing effect. The migration-related influx of 1.35 million people has led to an increase in energy consumption of around 56 billion kWh. The German Business Initiative for Energy Efficiency (Deneff) views the results of the AG Energiebilanzen with concern. "We are in a dangerous vicious circle," said CEO Christian Noll. The decline in investment is also affecting necessary efficiency measures in plants, buildings and infrastructure.
Policy should set efficiency incentives
Noll called for a rapid increase in economic output per kilowatt hour consumed, known as energy productivity, through greater energy efficiency as never before. "Decreasing energy consumption is desirable for climate protection, but not at the expense of economic output," he warned. Climate protection is reaching an impasse because the renovation rate has fallen below one percent per year.
Politicians must now react quickly and, for example, promote the renovation of buildings, which is currently being negotiated at EU level in the form of minimum efficiency standards for the least energy-efficient buildings. In the industrial sector, the investment premium from the Growth Opportunities Act is a good start. "Unleashing the untapped energy efficiency potential of 400 billion kilowatt hours in industry alone could create a win-win-win situation," said Noll.
The fact that energy-related CO2 emissions fell by around 11% in the first three quarters of 2023 according to estimates by AG Energiebilanzen is positive for climate protection. This corresponds to a reduction in the order of 55 million tons of CO2. For 2023 as a whole, the AG expects energy-related CO2 emissions to fall by 10.7 percent. The reduction contribution could reach around 65 million tons.
The decline in domestic energy consumption in the first six months of this year by more than 7% as well as different consumption trends for the individual energy sources have led to changes in the energy mix. Renewables and mineral oil increased their shares. In contrast, hard coal, lignite and natural gas saw their shares fall as a result of a reduction in consumption that was significantly higher than the overall decline.
The forecast of energy consumption in 2023 has been published by AG Energiebilanzen on its website.
Author: Susanne Harmsen
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