04/20/2023
Source: Energy & Management Powernews
If Bavaria wants to achieve its climate neutrality target by 2040, enormous efforts are still needed. To the conclusion comes a study, which initiated the industry association VBEW.
Of an "epochal task", spoke Detlef Fischer, CEO of the Association of the Bavarian Energy and Water Industry (VBEW), at the press conference on the occasion of the presentation of the study "Bavarian Plan Energy 2040. Ways to greenhouse gas neutrality". The Bavarian government had shot the climate target "from the hip. And we have now had it scientifically investigated how it can be achieved."
The VBEW is the state organization of the BDEW in Bavaria. The CSU Free Voter government had it enshrined in a climate protection law that Bavaria must be climate neutral in 2040, five years ahead of the national average. The law has been in force since the beginning of the year.
The result of the implementation study: in order to achieve the goal of climate neutrality in 2040, two new 5.5 MW wind turbines must be built in Bavaria - per week. In addition, 2,000 to 2,800 10-kW PV systems on rooftops, plus ground-mounted PV systems covering the area of 50 soccer fields, also each week.
"We're not talking about what should be done here, but what needs to be done," said Klaus Steiner, chairman of the VBEW. "The energy industry has long since set out on the path."
In the study, which the VBEW Dienstleistungsgesellschaft mbH had prepared in cooperation with the Association of Bavarian Business (VBW) and Prognos AG, scientists from the Research Center for Energy Economics (FfE) examined in four scenarios how Bavaria can operate without greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 in accordance with the Bavarian Climate Protection Act. Basic assumption thereby had been that Bavaria becomes climaticneutral and the prosperity level remains or even slightly rises.
A return of the nuclear power to this goal, which Prime Minister Markus Söder around the shutdown of Isar 2 on 15 April to the CSU election campaign topic had explained, was not subject of the study.
FfE managing director Andrej Guminski and its scientific coworker Stephan Kigle summarized the results of the study. In addition to the enormous acceleration in the expansion of renewable energies already outlined, the energy thus generated must also be used as efficiently as possible, according to the study, so that, for example, in the area of building heat, heat pumps are preferable to H2-ready boilers, and in the transport sector, electric cars are preferable to alternatives with fuel cell or e-fuel drives.
County-specific planning necessary
At the same time, one must be aware of the large regional differences in Bavaria:
- Rural regions recorded a lower population density, large potentials for renewable expansion and rather energy-intensive industries, whereby some of these industries must be considered separately, for example, due to process-related emissions.
- Urban regions, on the other hand, would face quite different challenges with their high population density, for example, the expansion of the district heating network and a great need for energy-related building renovation. The energy turnaround must therefore be planned on a county-by-county basis: "There is no one Bavarian energy turnaround," Guminski said.
But what is needed everywhere is electrification and efficiency. At the same time, he said, the calculations across all scenarios showed a continuing need for electricity imports to Bavaria of around 30 percent of consumption. It will also not be possible to cover the hydrogen demand completely regionally, so that a massive expansion of the infrastructure would be necessary.
The possibilities of being able to use the generated energy flexibly would also have to expand significantly: for example, a battery storage system with 3 MWh storage capacity would have to be installed every week. Equally important, he said, is the use of batteries that are available anyway: Up to 1.7 million bidirectionally controlled passenger cars could make the energy system more flexible.
All of this must now be addressed quickly, the researchers said: "It needs speed, speed, speed!" Otherwise, they say, there is a risk not only of missing the targets and having to compensate for the emissions at great expense, but also of an additional financial burden of several billion euros.
The core statements of the study are already available on the project homepage. The researchers plan to present the final report on April 28.
Authors: Katia Meyer-Tien and Georg Eeble
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